Moderna Stock Roars Back on Bold Turnaround Hopes

Moderna ( (MRNA) ) has risen by 23.61%. Read on to learn why.

Moderna’s stock has surged 23.61% over the past week as investors responded to a mix of upbeat guidance and fresh clinical developments that hint at a more stable post‑pandemic future. The company told the market it expects about 10% sales growth by the end of fiscal 2026, underpinned by new product launches, additional seasonal vaccine approvals and tighter control of operating expenses. Moderna now sees 2025 sales coming in near the top of its earlier forecast at roughly $1.9 billion, with U.S. COVID‑19 revenue holding up better than feared as vaccination rates declined less sharply than management had projected.

Sentiment was also helped by progress in Moderna’s pipeline, particularly a new Phase 4 trial of its updated COVID‑19 vaccines mRNA‑1273 and mRNA‑1283 in generally healthy adults aged 50 to 64. The study, now recruiting, is designed to show that the latest variant‑matched shots can safely reduce infections and severe disease in a key age group, supporting the company’s push to build a durable, seasonal booster business. If successful, the data could underpin recurring revenue and strengthen the case that Moderna’s COVID franchise can support its broader ambitions in oncology and rare diseases while it works to cut operating costs and potentially break even around 2028.

Yet the sharp share-price rebound comes against a cautious Wall Street backdrop. Bank of America has reiterated a Sell rating with a $24 price target, and UBS recently cut its rating to Hold and trimmed its target to $34, warning that Moderna’s flat medium‑term revenue outlook and heavy investment needs leave profitability at risk without a new blockbuster. Analysts see the Phase III melanoma cancer vaccine, developed with Merck and due to deliver data around late 2026, as the next major swing factor for the stock, with the potential to move shares up or down by roughly half. For now, the market is betting that better‑than‑expected COVID sales, cost discipline and an advancing pipeline justify a reassessment of Moderna’s prospects, even as the consensus rating remains a cautious Hold and average targets still sit below current trading levels.