Intel’s Surging Stock Faces Harsh Reality Check Ahead

Intel ( (INTC) ) has been popular among investors this week. Here is a recap of the key news on this stock.

Intel’s stock has staged a sharp recovery, jumping more than 80% year-to-date as investors warm to its long-term turnaround story, even though fundamentals are still catching up. The chipmaker is pouring billions into new fabs in the U.S. and Europe, backed by government support, to rebuild its manufacturing edge and foundry business. Confidence got a lift when Nvidia agreed to buy $5 billion of Intel shares and partner on future products, reinforcing belief that Intel can re-emerge as a key manufacturing player in the AI era. Recent earnings showed tighter cost control, improving margins and a return to positive free cash flow, but much of the payoff from its heavy capex is still years away.

At the same time, risks remain meaningful for investors. Intel still trails Nvidia and AMD in cutting-edge AI chips, and adoption of its latest AI products has been slower than rivals’. Fresh worries surfaced after reports that Nvidia halted testing on Intel’s 18A node, raising questions about the maturity of one of Intel’s flagship processes, even as the company insists 18A is progressing well. Yet the Nvidia partnership is already producing visible product plans: leaks point to a co-designed “Serpent Lake” laptop chip that combines Intel’s Titan Lake CPU with Nvidia’s RTX Rubin graphics, using TSMC’s 3nm process and high-bandwidth LPDDR6 to compete with AMD’s Strix Halo from late 2025 or 2026. For now, Wall Street is staying cautious: despite a roughly 78% share-price rally over the past year, analysts maintain a Hold consensus on Intel, with average price targets implying only about 5–6% further upside as the market waits for clearer proof that the turnaround and foundry strategy can deliver sustainable earnings growth.