Roblox (RBLX) slid about 6% on Friday after JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and cut his price target to $100 (13% upside potential) from $145. The analyst said he still views Roblox as a long-term winner in the gaming ecosystem but believes the stock may “take a breather” in 2026 as several headwinds emerge.
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The move comes despite a strong 2025 performance, during which Roblox saw a surge in engagement driven by viral hits like Grow a Garden and Steal a Brainrot, which pushed bookings growth well above the company’s 20% annual target.
Roblox Faces Cooling Engagement and New Headwinds
The analyst noted that engagement trends, while still healthy, have begun to moderate as the platform’s biggest viral experiences fade from their peaks.
Also, Carpenter flagged upcoming challenges, including the rollout of facial age estimation in January, which could temporarily reduce activity, and the impact of the Russia ban, which he estimates could affect up to 10 million daily active users, one of Roblox’s top five markets.
Meanwhile, the analyst still expects Roblox to deliver around 20% bookings growth next year, even though management has not reaffirmed that target.
However, Carpenter sees limited upside unless new viral hits emerge or the company’s advertising business scales more quickly, neither of which he is including in his forecast.
Overall, with engagement cooling and margins expected to compress, the analyst believes the risk-reward has become more balanced heading into 2026.
Is Roblox a Good Stock to Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on RBLX stock based on 14 Buys, eight Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. Further, the average Roblox price target of $142.86 per share implies 61.41% upside potential.
