UnitedHealth (UNH), one of the prominent players in the health insurance space, is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on January 27. The stock fell 9% in after-hours trading on Monday after CMS proposed a much smaller Medicare Advantage payment increase than expected. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders are expecting about a 5.96% move in either direction in UNH stock in reaction to Q4 results.
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This implied move is lower than UnitedHealth stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 9% over the past four quarters.
Meanwhile, analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $2.10, representing a 69% decrease year-over-year. However, revenues are expected to increase by 13% from the year-ago quarter to $113.8 billion, according to data from the TipRanks Forecast page.
Recent News Ahead of Q4
On January 12, UnitedHealth came under fresh scrutiny after a U.S. Senate investigation found that the company used aggressive tactics to boost federal payments tied to its Medicare Advantage plans, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Medicare Advantage insurers receive fixed payments per patient, with higher payments for members with serious health conditions under a system called risk adjustment.
The investigation, which reviewed about 50,000 internal UnitedHealth documents, said the company treated this system as a profit driver rather than a support tool for sicker patients.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of UNH’s Q4 Earnings
Heading into the Q4 print, Bernstein analyst Lance Wilkes kept an Outperform rating and a $444 price target, calling UnitedHealth his “top healthcare pick for 2026.” Wilkes sees UnitedHealth taking steps to lift margins by exiting businesses that are no longer profitable. As these changes take hold and the sector improves, Wilkes expects earnings growth to pick up. Based on this outlook, the firm sees about 25% upside from current levels, with room for further gains if profits continue to improve.
In Wilkes’ view, UNH is a “long road back,” but one that could still pay off for investors willing to stay patient.
Meanwhile, top Morgan Stanley analyst Erin Wright also maintained a Buy rating on UNH stock, but decreased the price target to $409 from $411 per share. The new price target reflects 14% upside from current levels.
Is UnitedHealth a Good Stock to Buy Right Now?
Despite UNH’s ongoing challenges, analysts remain optimistic and see further upside to the stock in 2026. On TipRanks, UNH stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 15 Buys and three Hold ratings. The average UnitedHealth price target of $403.59 implies 14.77% upside potential from current levels.
