Kalshi Hits $2 Billion as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

Just a few years ago, betting on presidential elections or hurricane landfalls via an SEC-regulated exchange felt like a moonshot idea. Now? It’s a $2 billion business.

Kalshi, the startup bringing event-based trading into the financial mainstream, has just closed a $185 million funding round led by Paradigm, with big names like Sequoia Capital, Multicoin, and even Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao (in his personal capacity) joining in. The new round vaults Kalshi into unicorn status and signals that prediction markets, once a niche and bit of a regulatory headache, may be ready for primetime.

And the use case is everything from inflation odds and crypto volatility to Oscars outcomes and NBA scores. Kalshi doesn’t ask “What do you think?” It asks, “What are you willing to bet on?”

Kalshi Is Scaling Up Fast

The cash injection isn’t just padding. Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour says the funds will supercharge their tech stack and expand broker integrations. The platform already has pipes into Robinhood (HOOD) and Webull (BULL), but now it’s aiming for over a dozen more.

The big idea is seamless access. If prediction contracts on CPI data or sports finals can live right next to your Tesla shares (TSLA) and Bitcoin holdings, that’s when the format breaks out of niche territory and into your average investor’s screen.

And with markets ranging from “Will the Fed cut rates this year?” to “Will it rain in Chicago on July 4th?”, Kalshi is effectively becoming Bloomberg Terminal meets DraftKings.

Kalshi Isn’t the Only Prediction Platform Gaining Traction

Of course, Kalshi isn’t the only name on the board.

Polymarket, its biggest rival, just wrapped a $200 million raise of its own at a $1 billion valuation, with backing from Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. The platform saw a massive wave of volume during the 2024 election, even though it blocks U.S. users and lacks CFTC approval. But they’ve got heat, volume, and a pipeline that’s already integrated with Elon Musk’s social media platform, X.

Kalshi, in contrast, plays the regulatory game by the book. It won a key court battle with the CFTC last year, clearing the way to list election-based contracts after months of legal wrangling. With that green light, Kalshi was able to tap into the chaos of the Trump vs. Harris matchup, and came out looking prescient. Traders on the platform were leaning Trump long before pollsters caught on.

It’s one of the clearest real-world validations of what prediction markets promise: a crowd-sourced read on the future that can outshine even expert forecasts.

Kalshi Bets on Everything, Legally

Unlike Polymarket, which operates in regulatory gray zones and blocks U.S. IPs, Kalshi is fully licensed. And that’s a moat investors are now willing to pay for.

Still, state gambling commissions aren’t thrilled. New Jersey and Nevada have both challenged Kalshi’s ability to offer sports-related contracts, arguing they fall under state-level gambling laws. Kalshi’s rebuttal? We’re not gambling, we’re a federally licensed exchange. And the CFTC agrees.

Whether it’s a semantic distinction or a legal breakthrough depends on your vantage point.

From Fringes to Finance

Let’s zoom out. Prediction markets have long had a fanbase in academic and policy circles, especially for their potential to forecast political or economic shocks. But actual platforms? They’ve struggled.

Remember Intrade? It folded in 2013. Others got caught in legal red tape or niche obscurity. But Kalshi is threading a needle others couldn’t, combining crypto-native UX with TradFi-style compliance. And crucially, it’s getting the right players to pay attention.

This isn’t just retail degen money. Kalshi’s backers include the biggest names in VC, finance, and crypto. They’re betting that prediction markets are the next great financial primitive — essentially as fundamental to the digital economy as ETFs or options.

And Kalshi isn’t stopping at politics and sports. Contracts on climate risk, supply chain disruption, and AI regulation could all become real trading vehicles.

Although Kalshi isn’t publicly traded, investors can track crypto-related stocks that offer indirect exposure to the platform. Both Robinhood (HOOD) and Webull (BULL) currently support Kalshi’s prediction contracts, giving them early access to the growing prediction market trend. Track them and other crypto-linked stocks on TipRanks.