UBS (UBS) just released its 2026 forecast, and it sees a steady year for global markets, with a clear tilt toward gains in tech and AI. The bank notes that growth may start soft but then firm up as price trends ease and demand holds up. It also states that “AI and tech have been key drivers of global equity markets” and that this trend can stay in place if firms keep up with user needs. This broad view sets the tone for the year, then leads to a closer look at the main force behind the outlook. In this piece, we focus on the tech sector and the role of AI in the new UBS view for 2026.
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AI Gains Hold Center Stage
The UBS report finds that AI use is still in its early stages, even after sharp gains in stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). The bank points out that “AI adoption is set to rise from 10% of firms to 14% within six months,” which it sees as a key mark for faster use across the economy. It also notes that strong outlays by cloud firms and chip firms support this view, since these groups plan to lift AI spend to $571 billion in 2026.
In addition, UBS notes that this pace is “still less than 1% of global GDP,” suggesting the current cycle has room to grow if new tools continue to add value. The bank expects gains in chat tools, cloud work, and new robot use across plants and labs. This helps key names in chips and cloud, such as Nvidia, AMD, and Amazon, since they sell the parts and cloud services needed for this growth.
New Ties Between AI and Power Use
The UBS report adds that AI growth links to major shifts in power use. The bank estimates that U.S. data centers will use close to 9% of all U.S. power by 2035. This point shows why AI growth extends far beyond chips and the cloud. It also brings new focus to grid firms and power tech, since more power use may need new lines, tools, and plant sites.
At the same time, the bank notes that AI tools are now saving users close to 1 hour a day. UBS sees this trend as key, since real-world time gains can help firms lift output and show clear value for new AI spend. These gains also support demand for AI tools sold by firms like Microsoft and Alphabet.
Risks To Watch in 2026
UBS maintains its tone and points to risks that could slow the pace of AI gains. The bank notes that “monetization still lags capex,” meaning firms must prove their spending can translate into sales at a steady rate. It also states that chip needs may strain supply in some parts of the chain. In that case, delays can hit firms tied to AI chips or cloud buildouts, which include names like Nvidia and AMD.
The bank also keeps an eye on rules tied to trade or chip export. Shifts in these rules can slow cloud work or raise costs for chip parts in some regions. UBS views these risks as real, but it still sees a clear long arc for AI use across the decade.
UBS maintains a calm, steady view of tech and AI for 2026. The bank states that the AI spend path “has room to rise through the decade,” and that new use cases can lift the sector as tools become more widely adopted.
We used the TipRanks Comparison Tool to place the main AI stocks in one view. This tool helps all readers check price paths, key trends, and risk views with ease.
