Nvidia (NVDA) shares drew attention Tuesday after President Trump signaled approval for the chip giant to export its Hopper H200 chips to China. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a Buy rating and a $235 price target on NVDA stock, citing potential regulatory developments that could boost the company’s China business.
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Arcuri noted that this outcome was not surprising, given the scale of China’s AI compute market and limited domestic supply. Also, he noted that if Nvidia gets approval, it would “even the playing field” with AMD (AMD), which already secured licenses to ship its MI308 chips to China.
Importantly, China’s AI compute market is huge, and Nvidia estimates it at $50 billion annually by 2025. The analyst believes local Chinese chipmakers can only cover about 20% of demand (or about $10 billion), leaving 80% of the market to global suppliers like Nvidia and AMD.
Overall, if Nvidia gets approval to export H200s, it could capture a large share of China’s unmet AI chip demand, supporting Arcuri’s bullish view on Nvidia stock.
Security Review Adds Complexity
Earlier today, the Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia’s H200 chips for China will face an unusual U.S. national-security review before export.
The chips, manufactured in Taiwan, must first be shipped to the United States, where they will undergo a special inspection process before being forwarded to China.
This additional step is new for semiconductor exports and reflects the geopolitical sensitivity around advanced AI chips. While approval could unlock billions in revenue, the review process may slow down shipments and add compliance costs.
Is NVDA a Strong Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on NVDA stock based on 39 Buys, one Hold, and one Sell assigned in the past three months. Further, the average Nvidia price target of $258.00 per share implies 39.48% upside potential.
