UBER Technologies Stock Prepares to Thrive in the Autonomous Taxi Era

Uber (UBER) has seen an impressive surge, climbing from around $20 in 2022 to nearly $80–90 today. While some worry about disruption from Tesla’s (TSLA) upcoming autonomous taxi network, I’m optimistic about coexistence, with Uber evolving into a marketplace for autonomous rides, even as Tesla builds out its own vertically integrated network.

Yes, Uber stock appears expensive at current levels, but given its strong and steady growth trajectory, I believe it’s reasonable to accumulate a small position, even at a premium.

Uber Reaches Fintech Inflection Point

Uber has undergone substantial transformation recently, with its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rising sharply from break-even in Q4 2021 to $6.5 billion in 2024. Free cash flow is now also positive at $3.71 per share for the last trailing 12 months. This strong financial performance, which has led to the recent rise in stock prices, also coincides with the emergence of autonomous vehicle disruption. This is a pivotal moment for Uber, where it could make or break, but I’m betting on the former outcome.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has called autonomy Uber’s “single greatest future opportunity,” and the company’s strategy is clear: partner, don’t build. Uber is aligning with autonomous vehicle leaders like Waymo, which is already operating on the Uber platform in Austin. This positions Uber to become the world’s largest autonomous ride-hailing marketplace—a natural evolution of its business model with significant monetization potential.

Uber vehicle in urban traffic.

On the flip side, Tesla is aiming to dominate with a vertically integrated strategy, building its own vehicles, technology, and ecosystem. This gives Tesla a chance to own the highest-margin slice of the future autonomous taxi market and establish a moat that may prove unmatchable. While other players, like Waymo, plug into platforms like Uber, Tesla is playing the long game. The big question is whether Tesla will eventually also list its autonomous vehicles on Uber’s marketplace, or go entirely solo with its own standalone ride-hailing app.

Autonomous Vehicles Will Change Uber’s Financial Game

Currently, Uber captures approximately 25–30% of ride fares through its take rate, with the remaining portion going to drivers. Its Mobility EBITDA margin rose to 8.3% of gross bookings in Q1 2025. But with the shift to autonomous vehicles, margins could expand significantly—driver costs disappear, slashing per-mile expenses. For context, Waymo’s estimated cost per mile is around $0.30, compared to $0.70 for Uber rides with human drivers.

These dynamics could lead to major margin expansion for Uber, even if overall revenue growth temporarily slows due to lower ride prices. As autonomous adoption grows, total ride demand is also likely to increase, supporting long-term revenue growth.

With a global platform of over 150 million monthly active users, Uber is well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming autonomous mobility boom. That said, Tesla’s fleet of 8 million+ vehicles could quickly transform into an autonomous network—pending regulatory approval—via over-the-air software updates, making it a formidable competitor.

Uber’s Stock Price Has Not Overextended

Uber stock is currently trading well above both its 200-week and 50-week moving averages, a key signal I use to assess whether a stock is in a healthy uptrend. Meanwhile, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 55, indicating moderate bullish momentum—not overheated, but strong enough to support a continued uptrend. Given Uber’s solid fundamentals and long-term growth trajectory, this appears to be a stock worth holding for the time being.

As for the long-term threat posed by Tesla, I view it as manageable. Uber already commands a massive global network and is making strategic progress in autonomy through key partnerships. It’s unlikely to be outpaced entirely, and there’s plenty of room for multiple winners in the rapidly growing autonomous mobility market.

Is UBER Technologies Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

On Wall Street, Uber has a consensus Strong Buy rating based on 30 Buys, three Holds, and zero Sells. The average UBER stock price target is $99, indicating an 18.65% upside potential over the next 12 months.

See more UBER analyst ratings

Uber Remains Positioned to Extend Beyond $100 Per Share

Despite the looming disruption from autonomous driving and Tesla’s potential entry as a taxi operator, I remain bullish on Uber’s long-term ability to deliver stable shareholder returns. The integration of Waymo, currently a front-runner in autonomous tech, into Uber’s platform signals a promising future. A potential partnership with Tesla could further enhance the ecosystem, creating a win-win for all parties.

Even if Uber’s stock sees a short-term pullback due to valuation concerns, any weakness is likely to be temporary. While waiting for a better entry point could be wise, the long-term outlook, including a breach beyond $100 per share, remains strongly positive.