Goldman Sachs expects U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and “substantially outperform” the consensus estimate of 2.0%, driven by tax cuts, easing financial conditions, and reduced tariff headwinds. The firm calls for an additional $100 billion in tax refunds during the first half of the year and two rate cuts by year-end.
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“As has typically been the case since the pandemic, we are most optimistic (relative to consensus) in the US,” wrote Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius in the firm’s Macro Outlook 2026 report.
Global GDP to Grow Alongside U.S.
Furthermore, Goldman forecasts global GDP to rise by 2.8%, exceeding the 2.5% consensus estimate. India is expected to play a major role with 6.7% growth, followed by China at 4.8%.
However, Goldman doesn’t believe that GDP growth will translate into a stronger labor market, highlighting that job growth in developed regions has fallen below 2019 levels. A factor contributing to this effect is lower immigration, which is especially notable in the U.S. As for the effect of AI on job productivity, the firm doesn’t expect any material improvements, outside of the tech sector, for a few more years.
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