Morgan Stanley said the U.S. is nearing a major robotaxi breakout, with 2026 expected to mark the biggest step forward yet. The firm sees around 33 cities launching commercial autonomous services that year, setting the stage for sharp growth across the industry.
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The bank’s model shows a sharp rise in self-driving miles over the next decade. By 2032, autonomous cars could log close to 16 billion miles a year, or about 30% of all rideshare miles in the U.S.
Within that surge, Morgan Stanley said Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet’s Waymo (GOOGL) are positioned to lead, capturing nearly 70% of all autonomous miles by 2032.
Waymo Leads on Safety, Tesla Leads on Cost
Right now, Waymo has a clear safety edge. Morgan Stanley estimates its cars travel about 360,000 miles for every accident. Tesla’s early robotaxi data is closer to 50,000 miles per accident, though the sample is still small and improving.
Tesla, on the other hand, has the cost advantage. Its robotaxi cost is about $0.81 per mile, compared with $1.36–$1.43 for Waymo’s current system. The bank thinks Waymo will lower its costs once its next-gen hardware scales in 2027.
What This Means for Uber and Lyft
For Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT), the shift brings both upside and pressure. Morgan Stanley expects Uber to take about 22% of U.S. autonomous trips by 2032, while Lyft may capture around 7%, as direct robotaxi fleets claim a larger share of the market.
The long-term impact depends on whether robotaxi rides add new demand or simply replace traditional rideshare trips.
Which Autonomous Driving Stock Looks More Attractive Now?
Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison Tool, analysts currently favor Alphabet over Tesla. Alphabet carries a Strong Buy rating with a small upside based on its average price target. Meanwhile, Tesla holds a Hold rating, and its target price points to a double-digit downside from current levels.
