President Donald Trump said on Monday that he might allow Nvidia (NVDA) to sell a scaled-down version of its most advanced AI chip, the Blackwell, to China. Indeed, he told reporters that he would consider approving the sale if the chip’s performance was reduced by about 30% to 50%, describing it as a “somewhat enhanced — in a negative way — Blackwell” processor. Trump’s comments came as he confirmed a separate deal that allows Nvidia to sell its less-powerful H20 AI chip to China if the company pays 15% of the revenue from those sales to the U.S. government. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will also pay the same percentage on revenue from its MI308 chip.
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The H20 revenue-sharing deal and the possibility of a similar arrangement for the Blackwell are examples of Trump’s strategy to secure financial benefits for the U.S. in exchange for lower trade restrictions. However, experts warn that these kinds of agreements could set a precedent for all American companies selling to China and might weaken the national security argument behind the current export controls. Indeed, it is worth noting that U.S. restrictions currently classify the Blackwell chip as too powerful to be sold in China.
As a result, Nvidia and AMD have both seen their China sales drop sharply due to these rules. And while the Trump administration has started issuing permits for some shipments, the approved chips are older models that are no more advanced than those already made in China, thereby limiting their appeal. However, a newer but less powerful Blackwell could help Nvidia win back customers in China if approved. Unsurprisingly, though, Nvidia has said it is working on a new chip for the Chinese market and will look to receive export approval.
What Is a Good Price for NVDA?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on NVDA stock based on 35 Buys, three Holds, and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average NVDA price target of $187.57 per share implies 3% upside potential.
