Tesla stock (TSLA) has strung together three straight up days and tagged its highest close since late May. Shares hit $351.67 on Tuesday after a 10% run over those sessions, then hovered near $351 in midmorning trade. The broader market was quiet, which made Tesla’s follow-through stand out.
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Technicians say the pattern behind the move matters. “Tesla is currently in the midst of building a four and a half year BIG BASE,” wrote John Roque of 22V Research. He added, “the current setup for Tesla is reminiscent of the six-year BIG BASE that occurred from 2014 to 2019…. Tesla also carved out a two and a half year BASE from autumn 2010 to spring 2013.” Both phases preceded large multi-year advances, and bulls are leaning on that history now.
Tesla’s Technicals Point to a Bigger Move
Price sits above the 12-month moving average, which is the kind of confirmation chart watchers like to see when a base is forming. For the bulls, the message is simple. Hold the trend, absorb shallow dips, and let time do the heavy lifting.
Roque is not calling for the moon. “With only two prior examples, I don’t want to go overboard,” he said. Even so, his strategy is this. Long, wide bases tend to resolve higher when fundamentals stop getting worse and positioning resets. Tesla stock’s behavior is falling right in step with that view.
Robots and AI Reignite the Story
Under the surface, the narrative is shifting back toward long-dated bets. RBC’s Tom Narayan says clients are asking more about humanoid robots and the profit pools tied to them. Tesla plans to sell significant quantities of AI-trained humanoid robots in 2026, and Elon Musk keeps calling that a huge opportunity. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang went further, saying robotics will be “one of the largest industries in human history.”
This kind of talk pulls attention away from near-term auto margins and toward optionality in software, autonomy, and robotics. When markets believe the future story again, they tend to give the stock more room to run. This is what this rebound is signaling.
Caution Still Has a Voice
Not everyone is ready to chase. Baird’s Ben Kallo reiterated a “cautious stance” after the three-day surge, arguing that estimates still look too high given a softer car business. He put it plainly. “Acknowledging the increased patience, we remain cautious with volume and financial estimates for second-half 2025 too high, and the Automotive business continuing to show signs of weakness.”
Policy risk adds another wrinkle. Losing the $7,500 federal tax credit or seeing fewer zero-emission credit sales would pinch earnings. That is why some are happy to let the chart prove itself before leaning harder into the long side.
What the Tape Says Now
From a market lens, Tesla is up about 68% over the past 12 months but still down roughly in the teens year to date. That mix tells you positioning has room to rebuild while sentiment heals. When a stock clears prior highs and holds them, dip buyers often get braver.
The near-term checklist is straightforward. Keep closes above recent breakout levels. Watch volume on up days. Respect pullbacks that hold higher lows. If those boxes keep getting ticked, the “BIG BASE” theme can carry further than skeptics expect.
Overall What Does This Mean
The base is real, the story is back, and the chart is leaning up. Bulls have history and momentum on their side, while bears can still point to earnings and policy risk. That tension is healthy. It keeps the move honest.
For traders, balance wins. Let the trend work while sizing for bumps. If the setup keeps improving, the market will do the talking. If it stalls, there is time to step aside. In this tape, patience and price are the best guides.
Is Tesla Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Wall Street is split on where Tesla goes next. Out of 36 analysts who’ve weighed in over the past three months, 13 call it a Buy, 15 say Hold, and eight recommend Sell. The average 12-month DIS target sits at $305, implying a 13% drop from current levels.
