Top Wall Street analyst David Vogt from UBS (UBS) is optimistic about Apple’s (AAPL) prospects, given the reduction of U.S. tariffs from 145% to 20%. The tariff changes, recently announced by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency, significantly ease the potential economic burden on AAPL, given its reliance on China’s supply chain for manufacturing.
Overall, Vogt maintained a Buy rating on Apple stock with a price target of $236, which implies 19.1% upside potential from the current level.
Before moving ahead, it must be noted that Vogt ranks 1,763 out of more than 9,400 analysts tracked by TipRanks. He has a success rate of 56% and has achieved an average return per rating of 9.2% in the past year.
Analyst Sees Smaller Earnings Hit Than Feared
Vogt initially estimated that a 145% tariff on technology imports from China could have slashed Apple’s earnings capacity by 30%.
However, on Friday night, several of the company’s electronic products, such as iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watches, and AirTags, were exempted from tariffs. Thus, under the new tariffs, the impact on the company’s bottom line is expected to be smaller.
The analyst believes that the reduced tariffs would result in a $0.34 per share drop in Apple’s earnings, or a 5% hit to its 2026 earnings forecast of $7.49 per share. This tariff change brings relief to Apple, improving its overall growth outlook.
Another analyst, Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI, expressed optimism. He said, “This is a major relief for Apple. The tariffs would have driven material cost inflation.” Moreover, he anticipates AAPL stock to rally on Monday following an 11% decline earlier in the month.
Apple Bets on India amid China Tariff Threats
While this exemption offers relief, uncertainty remains. A lower “sectoral” tariff on semiconductor-based goods is possible, and President Trump may still apply tariffs to phones, computers, and electronics.
As a result of these tariff changes, Apple is boosting iPhone production in India to counter China tariffs and avoid substantial price increases for consumers.
With India projected to produce over 30 million iPhones annually, this output could help meet much of the U.S. demand. However, shifting production poses challenges, especially with the iPhone 17, primarily set to be made in China.
It must be noted that India currently accounts for 20% of Apple’s global iPhone production, and the company plans to expand this further.
Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, AAPL stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys, 12 Holds, and four Sells assigned in the last three months. At $242.61, the average Apple stock price target implies a 22.44% upside potential.
