In his latest research report, Top UBS analyst Karl Keirstead stated that following recent checks and debates, he remains “very constructive” on Palantir Technologies’ (PLTR) fundamentals and didn’t see any evidence of emerging pressure in the data analytics company’s commercial or government segments. That said, Keirstead retained his Hold rating with a price target of $165, citing PLTR stock’s valuation.
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PLTR stock has declined 16.5% over the past month, but is still up more than 106% year-to-date.
Top UBS Analyst Weighs in on PLTR’s Fundamentals
Keirstead’s positive comments on Palantir’s fundamentals are based on three recent checks involving one of the company’s largest customers and two of its service partners. The analyst also held meetings with PLTR’s CFO and privately-held Anduril. These checks enabled the analyst to draw favorable conclusions about the demand backdrop and defense spending trends.
Commenting on CEO Alex Karp’s statement during the Q2 2025 earnings call about the possibility of the U.S. commercial segment growing by 10 times in five years, the 5-star analyst noted that checks about the total addressable market (TAM) for Palantir, competition, the SAP (SAP) partnership, and other factors indicate that this target seems “optimistic but doable.” Keirstead added that Palantir’s largest customer is forecasting 35% spending growth with the company for the next 3-5 years, as it expands use cases and usage.
Regarding defense spending and procurement modernization, Keirstead highlighted that while many other tech firms have cited weakness in deal activity in their U.S. Federal businesses, Palantir delivered a 53% surge in its U.S. government business, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. He added that the checks didn’t hint at a pending Department of Defense (DoD) spending slowdown.
Despite all these positives, Keirstead remains sidelined on PLTR, as it is trading at an elevated valuation of 130x his 2026 free cash flow estimate. The analyst believes that optimism about the company’s market-leading growth and margins, as well as its unique exposure to AI, data, and defense tech trends, is already priced into PLTR stock.
Is Palantir Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Currently, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Palantir Technologies stock based on 13 Holds, four Buys, and two Sell recommendations. The average PLTR stock price target of $154.47 indicates a downside risk of 1.04% from current levels.
