Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) recently raised its full-year revenue outlook, citing healthy growth in its member base, favorable forex changes, and ad sales. In his latest research note, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth noted that investors’ expectations remain elevated even after an increase in 2025 guidance. Despite several positives, the top analyst reiterated a Hold rating on Netflix stock with a price target of $1,300, as he continues to believe that the risk/reward is more balanced at current levels.
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Top JPMorgan Analyst Weighs in on NFLX Stock
Anmuth noted that investors see upside to Netflix’s 2025 guidance, given solid content in the second half of the year, recent price hikes, advertising ramp, and more favorable forex movements. The 5-star analyst expects NFLX’s 2025 revenue to come in at $45.1 billion, toward the higher end of the company’s guidance in the range of $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion.
Meanwhile, the analyst noted that Netflix’s total viewing comparisons in the first half of the year faced pressure from the impact of paid sharing, content delays from strikes, and a back-half weighted slate. However, the company expects faster engagement growth in the second half, supported by stronger content, including Squid Game S3, Stranger Things S5, Wednesday S2, Nobody Wants This S2, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Troll 2, Alice in Borderland S3, and Jay Kelly. Anmuth stated that live events and sports content are also expected to drive robust engagement, ad dollars, and subscriber growth.
While Netflix is enhancing its live and sports content offerings, Anmuth pointed out that some notable deals have recently gone to rivals, including Apple’s (AAPL) purchase of U.S. F1 streaming rights and Paramount’s (PARA) agreement for UFC U.S. distribution rights with an average annual value of $1.1 billion. Beyond Live, NFLX continues to focus on bolstering its U.S. scripted TV and film business to drive more domestic hits. Additionally, Anmuth expects Netflix to gain from its growing ad revenue, which is expected to double this year, backed by enhanced scale and better ad formats.
Despite these favorable aspects, Anmuth prefers to be on the sidelines on Netflix stock, with shares being fully valued, currently trading at 34x 2027 GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimate and 38x 2027 free cash flow estimate.
Is Netflix Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Overall, Netflix stock scores a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buys, 10 Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average NFLX stock price target of $1,394.09 indicates a 12% upside potential from current levels.
