When investing in artificial intelligence, it’s easy to feel drawn toward the most talked-about name in the market—Nvidia. It’s the apparent frontrunner, but with just a bit more digging, investors can find more vigorous, more advantageous long-term opportunities further down the supply chain. That’s precisely how I view ASML Holding (ASML) stock. This Dutch powerhouse is the only company in the world producing machines capable of printing the most advanced semiconductors, creating a vast moat—and after a recent valuation pullback, I see a clear buying opportunity.
I remain firmly bullish on the stock, and recent consolidation has served as a perfect opportunity to join the long-term uptrend.
ASML’s Next-Gen Growth Driver Is Just Getting Started
Looking ahead, ASML’s high-NA EUV machines, known as the EXE series, officially began shipping in December 2023. These aren’t just incremental upgrades—they’re a breakthrough. Each machine sells for around $350 million and is required to print chips at 2nm and below. Intel was the first to receive one and has already announced plans to use High-NA for 1.8nm nodes by 2026–2027.
Demand is expected to grow not just in logic chips but across DRAM memory markets as well. And the kicker? No other company can make this machinery—ASML’s supremacy is all-encompassing.
Once commercialization really kicks off between 2025 and 2027, the revenue per machine could double, driving top-line expansion and improving margins. In fact, even now, ASML’s Installed Base Management segment—which covers services and upgrades—accounted for 23% of total revenue in 2024. That segment grew about 15% year-over-year, and as more machines are deployed worldwide, this steady, high-margin income stream should only increase.
The global semiconductor industry is expected to top $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. ASML’s lithography systems will be absolutely essential for companies like Nvidia, Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META), all of which need more advanced, smaller nodes to meet demand in AI, cloud, and data center computing.
Can ASML Stock Power Past $1,000 in 2025?
ASML is well-managed and has a unique operational edge at the very heart of the global AI boom. That said, short-term stock performance will depend partly on capex cycles and customer spending. After a blowout year in 2022, 2023 saw a pullback as memory manufacturers trimmed orders and some foundry projects were delayed. Net sales for 2024 also moderated.
Looking into 2025, ASML is guiding for about 15% year-over-year revenue growth—not huge, but steady. The more compelling growth outlook comes into view from 2026 onward. At its 2024 Investor Day, ASML’s leadership laid out a vision for €44–60 billion in annual revenue by 2030, essentially doubling today’s levels.
Let’s put that into perspective. If ASML delivers $31.50 in normalized EPS by FY26 and maintains its current P/E ratio of 35, the stock could reach $1,100. With markets often pricing in growth ahead of time, I believe a $1,000 stock price in the next 12 months is not only possible—it’s very reasonable. That target aligns with consensus earnings estimates, giving me even more confidence in the forecast.
Watching the Global Geopolitical Chessboard
Of course, no investment is without risk—and for ASML, geopolitics is the big one. Since 2019, the company has been banned from selling its flagship EUV machines to China. No Chinese foundry has one. Then, in 2023, new restrictions hit some of ASML’s DUV systems as well. Here’s why that matters: in 2024, China made up 36% of ASML’s revenue. That spike was due to a surge of last-minute purchases before restrictions kicked in. Looking ahead, ASML expects China’s revenue share to drop to around 20% in 2025.
Essentially, ASML is forfeiting a chunk of its addressable market due to export controls. That’s not trivial. There’s also the possibility that China could retaliate by limiting access to rare earth metals or other critical materials that ASML (and the broader semiconductor industry) relies on. It’s also worth noting that ASML’s machines are built from thousands of globally sourced components—lasers from the U.S., optics from Germany, and electronics from Japan, to name a few.
In the long term, ASML may consider local assembly hubs in the U.S. or Asia to navigate barriers such as Trump tariffs, but that takes time and investment. For now, though, the company continues to operate in China within the regulatory limits. A new repair and maintenance center in Beijing is on track for 2025. ASML isn’t giving up on the Chinese market—it’s adapting and adjusting. Significantly, any lost sales in China can be reallocated to other customers, thanks to the company’s huge backlog and pent-up demand globally.
Is ASML a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Wall Street is largely on board with the bullish thesis. ASML currently has a Moderate Buy consensus based on five Buys, two Holds, and zero Sells. The average ASML price target is $929.25 per share, implying a 28% upside from current levels.
Analysts on Wall Street may be bullish but remain even more optimistic. My $1,000 price target is still well below the high-end estimate of $1,100, but I believe it reflects a realistic outlook based on where things are headed.
ASML Stock Is a Leading AI Investment
My ASML stake now makes up about 10% of my total portfolio. I bought my position when the stock dipped earlier this year following a reset in revenue expectations. That dip created a rare window to buy a world-class business at a reasonable price. And while geopolitical risks shouldn’t be ignored, they don’t change the bullish thesis. In fact, they may ultimately strengthen ASML’s position as demand tightens and trusted vendors become even more essential.
To be clear, I view ASML as one of the best AI investments available worldwide—not because it’s flashy, but because it’s fundamental. It’s the company that makes the technology behind the technology. That’s where long-term value is created and why ASML stock will test $1,000 per share in the coming weeks.
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