Top Analyst Hikes the Price Target on UnitedHealth Stock (UNH)

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has had a tough year so far, with shares of the health insurance giant down around 39% year-to-date. The drop has been caused by several issues, including higher costs in its Medicare Advantage (MA) business, weak Q1 results, and a sudden CEO transition. Even so, UNH stock forecast received a price target hike from a 5-star analyst, Lisa Gill of JPMorgan. Gill lifted the price target on the stock to $418 from $405 yesterday, while maintaining her “Buy” rating. The revised price target implies about 36% upside potential from current levels.

Analyst Sees Recovery Potential Despite Medicare Pressure

Gill’s updated outlook comes after a recent meeting with UnitedHealth’s management. Following that conversation, she revised her forecasts and raised the price target on the stock.

One key area of concern has been UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage business, which has come under pressure due to a rise in care activity—mainly from physician visits and outpatient services. This surge has driven up costs for the company. In the first quarter, medical expenses came in well above expectations, weighing on its financial performance. In response, UnitedHealth may plan to focus on improving profits from its current plan offerings, rather than expanding its membership.

Looking ahead, Gill expects slower Medicare Advantage enrollment growth in 2025 and 2026. She believes UnitedHealth may take a more cautious approach by narrowing its plan offerings and possibly exiting unprofitable plans by 2026.

Even with these challenges, Gill sees room for the stock to recover. If UnitedHealth can achieve the lower end of its 3%–5% margin target in the Medicare Advantage segment, its earnings could come in above current market expectations.

Overall, Gill’s Buy rating shows she’s confident that UnitedHealth can work through its current issues and improve its profits over time.

Is UNH Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Overall, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on UnitedHealth stock based on 18 Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average UNH stock price target of $367.68 implies about 20% upside potential from current levels.

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