Top Analyst Predicts $10B in WhatsApp Ad Revenue for Meta

On Monday, social media giant Meta Platforms (META) announced that it will be running ads on WhatsApp’s Status feature in the Updates tab, prompting users to interact with advertisers. Top analyst Mark Mahaney from Evercore expects this move to generate over $10 billion in annual revenue run-rate by 2028.

Evercore Upbeat on Meta Platforms’ WhatsApp Monetization

Mahaney noted that Meta Platforms’ move to monetize WhatsApp follows requests from the 200 million businesses that use the platform to reach its 3 billion monthly active users (MAUs), of which 1.5 billion view the Updates tab daily. The 5-star analyst highlighted that Meta has a proven track record of “building new surfaces,” monetizing them successfully, and boosting profitability.

He expects WhatsApp monetization to “conservatively” generate $10.2 billion in advertising run-rate by 2028 for Meta Platforms. This estimate is based on base case assumptions, including the rise in daily users on Updates tab from 1.5 billion to 1.7 billion, and Meta capturing just $6 of ad ARPU (average revenue per user), a level far below the company’s mid-$60s, reflecting “shorter time-spent as well as looser targeting signals.”

Mahaney expects the move to drive $5 billion in operating income, leading to a rise in consensus estimates for 2028 revenue and operating income by about 4% and 5%, respectively. Interestingly, Mahaney ranks 227^th among more than 9,600 analysts on TipRanks. He has a success rate of 59%, with an average return per rating of 14.8% over a one-year period.

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski reiterated a Buy rating on Meta Platforms stock with a price target of $664. The 5-star analyst sees about a $6 billion incremental revenue opportunity from WhatsApp Status ads. He believes that this move reflects a clear acceleration in Meta Platforms’ efforts to monetize user engagement on WhatsApp. Gawrelski’s estimate assumes WhatsApp ads to achieve comparable CPMs (cost per thousand impressions) and ad load like those on Instagram.

Is META a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Given management’s solid execution in a challenging macro backdrop, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Meta Platforms stock based on 42 Buys, three Holds, and one Sell recommendation. The average META stock price target of $699.81 indicates that the stock is fully priced at current levels. META stock has risen about 20% year-to-date.

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