Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) may be nearing the end of its run as a multi-year market laggard. The EV maker is closing out 2025 on a strong note, with shares up 69% year-to-date. The good news, according to Baird analyst Ben Kallo, is that 2026 offers plenty of promise too.
Claim 50% Off TipRanks Premium and Invest with Confidence
- Unlock hedge-fund level data and powerful investing tools designed to help you make smarter, sharper decisions
- Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis so your portfolio is always positioned for maximum potential
In fact, such is Kallo’s conviction in the story moving forward, the analyst upgraded his RIVN rating from Neutral to Outperform (i.e., Buy) while also increasing his price target from $14 to a Street-high of $25. (To watch Kallo’s track record, click here)
What’s behind these higher expectations? Simply, 2026 is the year of the R2 launch – when Rivian’s midsize electric SUV will enter the market. “We expect this to be a boost for RIVN’s brand, product demand, and thus by extension the stock as deliveries begin near mid-year,” Kallo said.
This model will broaden Rivian’s offerings by entering a lower-priced segment, expected to be priced around $45,000, thereby significantly increasing the TAM (total addressable market).
As for delivery estimates for the year ahead, the analyst thinks consensus expectations look achievable. Assuming the first R2 deliveries begin in late Q2 and ramp through the second half of the year, Kallo sees Q1 deliveries at 12,500 units versus the Street’s 13,150; Q2 at 12,300 units (including 100 R2) versus 14,475; Q3 at 17,500 units (including 4,000 R2) versus 16,415; and Q4 at 23,000 units (including 10,000 R2) versus 18,475. That brings Kallo’s full-year forecast to 65,300 units (including 15,100 R2), compared with consensus at 66,478.
Additionally, Kallo thinks fleet announcements could act as a “potential catalyst” throughout 2026. The company has been steadily providing more details on fleet deals for the RCV beyond its core Amazon relationship, and he believes additional RCV partnerships could boost deliveries and might be announced at any time during the year.
On the liquidity front, Rivian closed Q3 with $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents, which the company expects will cover operations through the start of construction at its Georgia manufacturing facility (construction kicks off in 2026, vehicle production starts in 2028). In addition, Rivian has $6.6 billion accessible via its DOE loan, to be drawn alongside Georgia construction, and anticipates an additional $2.5 billion from the Volkswagen JV (bringing total received to $3.3 billion) as technological milestones are achieved.
The EV ecosystem has been sluggish for most of 2025, which Kallo thinks is largely due to concerns – whether justified or not – about the removal of the EV tax credit. “With this now in the past, we believe investors (particularly generalists) will be more willing to begin work on RIVN as it enters a new product cycle with the R2 launch,” Kallo opined.
Turning now to the rest of the Street, where based on an additional 8 Buys, 8 Holds, and 5 Sells, the analyst consensus rates the stock a Hold (i.e., Neutral). The forecast calls for shares to drop by ~28% over the next 12 months, considering the average price target clocks in at $16.22. (See RIVN stock forecast)
To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.