Fortinet (FTNT) shares fell over 26% at the time of writing after the cybersecurity company’s Q2 2025 results revealed that it is already 40–50% through its 2026 firewall refresh cycle, which is much further along than analysts expected. This unexpected progress led to worries that the total upgrade opportunity may be smaller than previously estimated. As a result, several analysts downgraded the stock.
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Indeed, KeyBanc, led by five-star analyst Eric Heath, downgraded Fortinet from Buy to Hold after noting that underlying product revenue growth—excluding upgrade-related sales—was flat or declining in the first half of 2025, which it had not anticipated. Separately, Morgan Stanley, led by five-star analyst Keith Weiss, downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $78 from $110. The firm said it was disappointed by weaker subscription revenue and soft upselling, which hurt free cash flow.
Piper Sandler’s five-star-rated Rob Owens also downgraded Fortinet to Hold and slashed its price target from $130 to $90. The analyst believes that investors may lose confidence now that a large part of the renewal cycle has already happened, and that Fortinet will face a “multi-quarter, show-me” phase where it needs to rebuild momentum. Stifel took a similar view by lowering its price target to $85 from $95 and assigning a Hold rating. However, five-star analyst Adam Borg pointed out that Fortinet’s billing and product revenue strength—aside from the refresh concerns—could be a sign of positive trends for peers like Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
Is FTNT Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on FTNT stock based on nine Buys, 18 Holds, and zero Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average FTNT price target of $111.61 per share implies 56.4% upside potential. However, it’s worth noting that estimates will likely change following the earnings report.
