The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, September 14, 2025

Everything to Know about Macro and Markets

Stocks ended mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down slightly due to heavy-profit taking in the previous days’ leading gainers. Meanwhile, a rally in a handful of large-cap stocks lifted the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) to its fourth straight record high. Despite Friday’s decline, the DJIA and the SPX – as well as the NDX – logged strong weekly gains, supported by rate-cut expectations. The Dow ended the week up 0.95%, while the S&P 500 rose 1.59%, its fifth positive week in the last six, and the Nasdaq-100 rallied 1.86% for its second winning week in a row.    

Rate Cut Guaranteed, Depth Debated

Thursday brought the bullish trifecta, with all three key broad indexes – DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite – reaching fresh records, driven by investor confidence in imminent rate cuts and strong AI and broad tech sector momentum. The simultaneous record closes of all three indexes reflect a rare market event, not seen since December 2024. Given that this was also the third straight record close for the S&P 500 and a historic Dow 46,000 breakthrough, it was no surprise that Friday saw a pullback on heavy profit-taking amid heightened investor nerves as stock market bubble headlines resurfaced again.  

The Fed’s next move disappeared from the list of market-moving events, as a 0.25% rate cut is now fully priced in – with some anticipating a 0.50% cut – following the recent batch of economic data. While CPI edged higher in August revealing some price stickiness in tariff-sensitive categories – the print came in mostly in line with consensus, following weaker-than-expected wholesale inflation report.

Meanwhile, the job market continued to signal weakness with a sharp jump in weekly unemployment claims to a four-year high. This followed a softer-than-expected jobs report that showed U.S. job growth weakening sharply in August and the unemployment rate increasing to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%. On top of that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down payroll gains for the year through March by almost a million – which showed that job growth was already stalling before Trump’s policies such as tariffs kicked in, shifting the blame to the previous administration. Beyond that, the UoM consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest since May, reflecting growing concerns among households regarding labor markets and inflation.

Weaker labor market and declining consumer sentiment are helping shift the narrative from stagflation worries to an easing monetary cycle. The Fed has been clear in recent weeks that it is more focused on the weakening labor market than on any persistent inflation risk, and the latest data provided solid evidence that Jerome Powell’s recent dovish stance is well-based.

Stocks That Made the News

▣ Oracle (ORCL) soared by about 40% on Wednesday – its best one-day gain since 1992 – following its blowout guidance. While the company slightly missed elevated top- and bottom-line expectations in fiscal Q1 2026, investors dismissed these as immaterial, focusing instead on a 359% surge in cloud backlog, aka RPO – driven by four multi-billion-dollar contracts, notably with Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI – and a more than significant increase in Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue outlook. Oracle said it expects to close several additional multi-billion-dollar deals in the coming months that should send the RPO soaring above $500 billion. The RPO surge sent a powerful signal about Oracle’s positioning for the AI/cloud cycle and confirmed that the company is now a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure demand, fully deserving the status of the fourth hyperscaler. Despite heavy profit-taking at the end of the week, ORCL still ended with a weekly gain of about 30%. Oracle’s bullish guidance also lifted the AI sector, sending droves of AI-related stocks higher.

▣ Taiwan Semiconductor, aka TSMC (TSM) reinforced the AI demand momentum, reporting a nearly 34% year-over-year jump in August sales. The cumulative revenue from January to August 2025 surged over 37% compared to the same period in 2024.  

▣ Microsoft (MSFT) and OpenAI have signed a non-binding memorandum to redefine their partnership, allowing OpenAI to restructure into a for-profit Public Benefit Corporation aimed at attracting capital and scaling AI development. The original nonprofit parent will maintain control and receive an equity stake valued at over $100 billion. Microsoft, a major investor with more than $13 billion committed, will retain access to OpenAI’s technology, including future advancements potentially up to AGI. However, the deal signals a shift from Microsoft’s previous exclusivity, as OpenAI expands cloud partnerships with other providers like Oracle and Google. Details on Microsoft’s exact ownership stake remain undisclosed as both sides work to finalize terms.

▣ Alphabet (GOOGL) continued gaining over the past week, as its Google Cloud appeared well-positioned for a major growth spurt. The company said that the unit’s backlog of non-recognized sales contracts has expanded to $106 billion, and the company expects to convert more than 50% of this amount, nearly $58 billion, into revenue by 2027. Google Cloud’s momentum is linked to the AI boom, with nine of the top ten largest AI labs – including OpenAI and Anthropic – now listed as customers.

▣ Micron Technology (MU) soared more than 20% on the week, driven by a bullish analyst upgrade from Citigroup, which hiked its price target to $175, citing strong DRAM chip pricing, rising demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) from AI and data center end markets, and Micron’s positioning as an AI infrastructure beneficiary. Renewed analyst optimism, alongside broader industry enthusiasm sparked by SK Hynix’s launch of next-generation HBM chips, supported the rally, with Micron closing at a fresh record high.

▣ Super Micro Computer (SMCI) announced that it began global shipments of Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions, including HGX B300 systems and GB300 NVL72 racks for AI model training. According to industry analysts, close partnership with Nvidia provides SMCI with first-mover advantage in next-generation AI infrastructure buildout.

▣ Adobe (ADBE) stock jumped after surpassing fiscal Q3 expectations and raised full-year guidance. Revenue rose 11% with 99% of Fortune 100 companies using AI in Adobe apps and 40% of top 50 enterprise accounts doubling spending since fiscal 2023. Investors welcomed the results as a confirmation that ADBE is already seeing a payoff from AI features.

▣ Synopsys (SNPS) plunged over 20% after reporting fiscal Q3 results that missed Wall Street’s EPS and revenue targets. The automation software firm was weighed down by an 8% decline in its Design IP business, driven by U.S. export restrictions and a pull-back from a major customer. While Design Automation grew 23%, and free cash flow hit $632 million, weaker-than-expected guidance and an indefinite freeze of the share repurchase program spooked investors, sparking a sharp sell-off.

▣ Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) soared nearly 70% last week on reports that Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority-cash takeover bid for the media giant. Paramount Skydance (PSKY) – with a market cap of just $19 billion – aims to acquire WBD, which is roughly double its size, backed by Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison’s family wealth. The proposed deal would include all of WBD’s assets, such as HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros. Pictures. Investors reacted positively to the speculation, betting that the combined entity would create a powerful competitor to streaming leaders like Netflix (NFLX) and Disney+ (DIS) by combining HBO Max and Paramount+ subscriber bases.

▣ Boeing (BA) shares dropped after the aerospace giant acknowledged potential schedule slips for its long-delayed 777X widebody aircraft, which is already years overdue. The 777X program, originally slated to begin deliveries in 2020, now faces certification delays pushing the first delivery to 2026 or even 2027. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed there remains a “mountain of work” to complete certification, with regulatory scrutiny, technical issues like structural cracks found in 2024, and supply chain inflation creating headwinds. These setbacks come as Boeing has already incurred billions in losses on the program while Airbus (EADSF) continues to gain in the widebody market with its on-time A350 line. The delay threatens to constrain capacity expansion for major international carriers relying on the 777X for fleet renewal and growth plans, with significant financial implications for Boeing.

▣ Tesla (TSLA) neared a year-to-date breakeven after logging a weekly surge of more than 17%. The stock was lifted by overall market optimism amid expectations of a Fed rate cut, alongside company-specific catalysts such as winning a long-awaited permit to test its autonomous vehicles in Nevada. The board also crafted a major pay package upgrade for CEO Elon Musk that is tied to the company’s performance to align his interests with the EV business’s fate. Musk recently said the Optimus humanoid robot business could eventually account for the bulk of Tesla’s value. With questions about Tesla’s EV sales trajectory lingering, investors welcomed the company’s pivot toward robotics. Additionally, last week Tesla announced the Megablock – a large-scale, integrated battery energy storage system designed for rapid deployment and cost efficiency, with production slated for H2 2026. These developments provided a strong reminder that Tesla is leading the way in multiple tech areas – from EVs to robots to energy storage.

▣ Arista Networks (ANET) was the worst performer on Friday among large-cap tech stocks, dropping nearly 9%. The company impressed analysts at its investor day with a projection of 20% YoY revenue growth in 2026, driven by a 70% surge in AI networking revenue. Barclays noted the 70% growth outlook may be conservative given the company’s massive backlog and robust cloud capex trends in the tech sector. Multiple investment firms – including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Wolfe Research, Evercore ISI, and others – raised their price targets and reiterated “Buy” ratings. While some viewed Arista’s forecast of lower operating margins in 2026 due to increased AI infrastructure capex as a risk, these margins are expected to remain healthy at 43-45%. Analysts from Wolfe Research and others also emphasized that Arista historically guides conservatively, and they believe the margin outlook is no exception. Friday’s stock decline likely reflected a “sell the news” dynamic, with profit taking following the stock’s 135%+ rally from April lows through Thursday.

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The Q2 2025 earnings season is over, but several notable releases are still scheduled for this week. The companies in focus are General Mills (GIS), FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), and Darden Restaurants (DRI).

Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for Altria Group (MO), Iron Mountain (IRM), Coca-Cola (KO), Digital Realty (DLR), Gilead Sciences (GILD), UnitedHealth (UNH), American International Group (AIG), TSMC (TSM), Best Buy Co (BBY), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and other dividend-paying firms.

For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.