The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, May 18, 2025

Everything to Know about Macro and Markets

Stocks clocked in strong weekly gains, erasing their 2025 losses and turning positive year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 3.41%, the S&P 500 (SPX) jumped by 5.27%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) surged by 6.81% for the week.

Markets Rally on Truce

The week opened with a bang as the U.S. and China announced a 90-day truce in the trade war. The rebound in risk appetite depressed stocks perceived as defensive and drove investors back to riskier bets – propelling the Nasdaq-100 into a bull market just a little over a month after it fell into the grip of a bear. The large-cap tech benchmark and the S&P 500 then proceeded to gain every day of the week, while the Dow saw losses midweek, driven down by a sharp drop in UnitedHealth.

The weaker-than-expected readings on CPI and wholesale inflation deflected doubts about Corporate America’s ability to withstand trade turbulence without having to pass on higher costs to consumers. Arriving right after a strong earnings season, this data confirmed U.S. companies’ resilience, supporting forward valuations based on high profit expectations and adding optimism about the overall economic outlook. On this background, a fifth-straight monthly dip in the consumer sentiment index and weaker-than-expected retail sales went almost unnoticed.

Middle East Deals Boost

In fact, Trump’s Middle East news flurry could easily overshadow any negative news. The President announced a $142 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, as well as broader investments totaling $600 billion – and then went on to strike major aviation and defense agreements with Qatar, followed by a deal-heavy visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Qatar signed more than $243 billion in defense and commercial deals with the U.S., laying the groundwork for a bigger $1.2 trillion economic pledge.

However, the strongest catalyst for the U.S. stock rally was the technology component of these Middle East agreements. Thus, Nvidia and AMD will supply advanced chips to Saudi Arabian state-backed firm Humain for a massive data-center project, while other U.S. hardware and infrastructure firms also stand to benefit from the Kingdom’s bid to become a global tech hub. In a separate development, President Trump finalized a significant AI chip agreement with the UAE, permitting the Gulf country to import advanced Nvidia chips for the construction of the largest AI data center outside of the U.S. in Abu Dhabi. Risk-on sentiment was so strong that the news of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating on Friday – even coupled with the failure to advance House Republicans’ massive tax-and-spending bill – provided just a minor hiccup in the stock-market advance. The rally was further supported by news that the U.S. and the EU broke a prolonged deadlock and agreed to resume formal trade negotiations, which gave the market another signal that the “tariff tantrum” in stocks may be over.

Stocks That Made the News

▣ UnitedHealth (UNH) tumbled by over 23% on the week – driving a loss of more than 42% year-to-date – as a string of high-impact developments rattled investor confidence. The sharp selloff was driven by a DOJ investigation into potential Medicare fraud within its Medicare Advantage business, adding legal overhang to an already volatile outlook. The situation escalated with the abrupt resignation of CEO Andrew Witty, who stepped down citing personal reasons. In response, UnitedHealth appointed board chairman and former CEO Stephen Hemsley to retake the helm. However, leadership continuity did little to stabilize sentiment. Compounding the pressure, UnitedHealth withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance, blaming increased medical care usage and higher-than-expected costs among Medicare Advantage members. Bank of America responded by downgrading the stock, warning of a likely earnings reset.

▣ Nvidia (NVDA) was the best performer in the S&P 500 last week, propelled by a flurry of good news. The rally in the stock was already going strong on news of the U.S.-China trade thaw, when it received a significant boost from Trump’s Middle East agreements. As part of multi-billion-dollar deals, Nvidia will supply advanced AI chips to Saudi Arabia’s state-backed firm Humain for a massive data center project under the kingdom’s $100B Project Transcendence. Separately, the company secured a landmark agreement with the UAE, which includes the export of up to 500,000 AI chips annually for the construction of a massive AI data campus in Abu Dhabi. Further fueling sentiment, the U.S. and EU broke a months-long impasse to restart formal tariff talks, reducing pressure on the global tech trade. Nvidia, already a top beneficiary of AI infrastructure demand, also gained from easing fears of export restrictions.

▣ Beyond Nvidia, several other U.S. hardware and cloud firms have seen their stocks surge on prospects to capitalize on the Middle East’s AI boom. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) secured a $10 billion partnership with Saudi Arabia’s AI firm Humain to deploy 500 megawatts of AI compute capacity over five years, utilizing AMD’s CPUs, GPUs, and software stack. Meanwhile, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) entered a $20 billion multi-year agreement with Saudi data center operator DataVolt to supply ultra-dense GPU platforms and rack systems for hyperscale AI campuses in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS announced a $5 billion investment with Humain to establish an “AI Zone” in Saudi Arabia, featuring AWS’s cloud infrastructure and AI services.

▣ Cisco (CSCO) and Oracle (ORCL) also rode the tailwinds of the Middle East tech pivot, emerging as key partners in the UAE’s newly unveiled Stargate AI campus (the name is a deliberate parallel to the U.S. Stargate effort, possibly to signal strategic alignment with the U.S. on AI). The 5-gigawatt project, led by Emirati firm G42 and backed by the U.S. government, will be the largest AI data center outside the U.S. and a central node in the region’s AI ambitions. While Nvidia will provide its cutting-edge Blackwell GB300 chips and OpenAI is set to become an anchor tenant, Cisco and Oracle are expected to supply critical networking, cloud, and enterprise infrastructure. Microsoft (MSFT), which holds a $1.5 billion stake in G42, is contributing its Azure cloud capabilities to power the campus and will co-establish two AI research centers in Abu Dhabi as part of the broader initiative.

▣ Cisco (CSCO) was already rallying prior to the announcements following its strong quarterly results. The company easily sailed past analyst FQ3 2025 estimates for revenue and EPS, with both top and bottom line above the high end of its prior guidance. The strong results were driven by strength in AI, software subscriptions, and cloud networking. Subscription revenue made up 56% of total revenue in Q3, underscoring the company’s pivot toward recurring income streams. Cisco issued strong guidance, with the expected FQ4 revenue and EPS surpassing analyst forecasts. The company raised revenue and EPS guidance for the full fiscal year, exceeding Street expectations. The upward revision is attributed to strong demand in AI-driven networking and cloud infrastructure, with Cisco securing over $1 billion in AI-related infrastructure orders year-to-date.

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The Q1 2025 earnings season is drawing to an end, but some notable earnings releases are scheduled for the next few days. Reports in focus this week are coming from Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Snowflake (SNOW), Target (TGT), Intuit (INTU), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), and Analog Devices (ADI).

Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for Chevron (CVX), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Valero Energy (VLO), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Microchip (MCHP), Applied Materials (AMAT), Evergy (EVRG), Cummins (CMI), and other dividend-paying firms.

For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.