The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, June 15, 2025

Everything to Know about Macro and Markets

Stocks clocked in weekly losses as Middle East hostilities flared up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost 1.32% for the week, returning to negative territory year-to-date. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 finished down 0.39%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) lost 0.60% for the week.    

Risk On/Off

The week unfolded positively through Thursday, with stocks lifted by better-than-expected economic data and a strong showing in tech shares. June’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed that households are feeling much less pessimistic about the inflation outlook, with the consumer sentiment index strongly rebounding in its first improvement in six months. Cooler-than-expected consumer and producer inflation reports lifted Fed cut expectations and investor spirits, as the data reflected no visible impact from tariffs on prices.

On the trade front, there were no major headlines, with gradual progress seen in U.S.-China trade discussions, and deals with India, Mexico, and Canada progressing in parallel. The “no scoop” atmosphere around tariff issues supported investor calm.

However, after stocks inched up near their record highs, a re-intensification of geopolitical risk – just as U.S.-China trade tensions subsided – pulled markets lower. Global stocks fell and oil prices surged on Friday, as Iran sent missiles into Israeli cities after Israeli airstrikes hit Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. Gold and the U.S. dollar rose as investors searched for safe havens.

Fed Ahead

The flare in Middle East tensions is a wild card for the Federal Reserve, which is having its rate policy meeting this week. After several months of oil price declines exerting a disinflationary effect on headline price indexes, this backdrop is about to change.

Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for roughly 3% of global output. A total production shutdown could push global oil prices above $100 per barrel, with worst-case scenarios seeing spikes up to $130 – especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil shipments, is disrupted. Although a strengthening USD can act as a partial counterweight, dampening inflation through lower import costs, the extent of its effects is limited.

The futures markets still foresee no change in Fed rates at the coming meeting, and the chances for a July cut have risen only marginally. However, the central bank’s path to interest rate cuts starting in September appears to have widened.

Stocks That Made the News

▣ Oracle (ORCL) surged over 21% last week, driven by robust fiscal Q4 2025 earnings and a bullish outlook for fiscal 2026. The company reported an 11% year-over-year revenue increase to $15.9 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. Notably, cloud infrastructure revenue soared 52%, reaching $3 billion, positioning it as Oracle’s fastest-growing segment. CEO Safra Catz projected cloud infrastructure growth to accelerate from 50% in fiscal 2025 to over 70% in fiscal 2026, with total cloud growth expected to exceed 40%. These optimistic projections prompted several analysts to raise their price targets, with Deutsche Bank describing the results as a “watershed moment for Oracle’s cloud pivot.”

▣ Tesla (TSLA) rose over 4% last week, supported by incremental product news and renewed investor optimism. The company refreshed its Model S and Model X vehicles with several upgrades alongside a $5,000 price hike aimed at lifting margins and reinforcing Tesla’s premium market positioning. CEO Elon Musk also announced a tentative June 22 launch date for Tesla’s robotaxi reveal in Austin, fueling speculative interest in its autonomous roadmap. Separately, Musk’s public softening toward Donald Trump helped ease political risk concerns. The gains capped a bullish week for the stock amid broader market negativity.

▣ Defense and aerospace stocks surged on Friday amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Investors sought safety in military contractors following Israel’s large-scale airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites. Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corp. (RTX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX) were among the few bright green spots on the stock performance heatmap on Friday, as the broader market declined on geopolitical fears.  

▣ Another notable group in the green was energy stocks, boosted by a jump in crude oil prices as concerns spread about possible supply impacts from the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Shares of refiner Halliburton (HAL) surged by 8.3% over the week, independent producer Diamondback Energy (FANG) added more than 7.6%, and integrated giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) gained 5.3%.

▣ Shares of payment processors, including PayPal (PYPL), Visa (V), and Mastercard (MA), fell by more than 3.5% over the week after a media report indicated that retail giants Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) are considering issuing their own stablecoins, a move that could help them avoid the interchange fees charged by credit-card providers.  

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The Q1 2025 earnings season is over, but several notable earnings releases are still scheduled for the next few days. These include Lennar (LEN), Jabil (JBL), Kroger Company (KR), Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and CarMax (KMX).

Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for Meta Platforms (META), Altria Group (MO), Merck & Company (MRK), Iron Mountain (IRM), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Lam Research (LRCX), Broadcom (AVGO), and other dividend-paying firms.

For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.