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The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Jan. 25

The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Jan. 25

U.S. stocks finished the week mixed as gains in technology shares helped offset weakness in financial stocks and rising rate pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.58% to $49,098.71, the S&P 500 (SPX) ended nearly flat, up 0.03% to $6,915.61, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) outperformed, rising 0.34% to $25,605.47.

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Meanwhile, interest rates continued to move higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.23%, reflecting steady inflation concerns and caution ahead of earnings. In commodities, oil (CL) gained 2.78% to $61.24 per barrel as energy demand expectations firmed, while gold (XAUUSD) rose 0.7% to $4,982.50 as investors balanced risk exposure. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 0.61% to $89,551 as digital assets paused after recent gains.

AI Rotation and Earnings Pressure

Turning to technology, this week highlighted a growing divide inside the AI trade. On the one hand, chip and hardware names benefited from supply constraints and near-term demand. On the other hand, large platform companies faced questions around spending and timing of returns.

Intel Corporation (INTC) was a clear example of how fast sentiment can turn. The stock dropped 17% after the company guided toward breakeven earnings for the first quarter and warned of yield issues and supply limits.

The weak outlook overshadowed a fourth-quarter beat and reinforced investor concern that its turnaround will take longer than expected.

At the same time, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) extended its rally, rising for a ninth straight session. Investors viewed Intel’s challenges as an opening for AMD to gain more share in the CPU market, especially as demand remains tight. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) also moved higher after reports that Chinese authorities will allow leading firms to move forward with plans to import its H200 chips, easing fears of another sudden demand shock.

Meanwhile, the broader market reflected this rotation. The Nasdaq 100 erased its losses from last week’s tariff concerns and ended the period higher, while the Russell 2000 dropped and broke a long stretch of outperformance versus the S&P 500.

Stocks That Made the Week

Beyond semiconductors, several company-specific stories stood out. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) gained 3.28% after announcing Rho alpha, its first robotics AI model built from its vision-language systems. Investors welcomed the move as another step toward practical AI products tied to future revenue.

Meta Platforms (META) rose 1.72% as attention shifted toward its upcoming earnings and whether management can outline clear paths to growth from its AI investments. Analysts have stressed the need for stronger top-line signals tied to engagement and monetization.

On the downside, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) fell 7.56% after missing earnings expectations and announcing a $5.1 billion deal to buy startup Brex, which raised questions around integration and execution risk.

Outside equities, political headlines also drew attention. President Donald Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging politically motivated debanking. JPMorgan said the claims have no merit, though the case added pressure to financial shares during the week.

The Week Ahead

Looking ahead, the market’s focus will shift almost entirely to earnings from the AI hyperscalers. Meta Platforms and Microsoft report results on Wednesday, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) later in the week. Investors will be watching for updates on AI spending, cloud demand, and whether heavy investment is starting to translate into steadier revenue growth.

Morgan Stanley cautioned that Meta will need to show clearer long-term drivers tied to AI products, messaging, and engagement tools to support its valuation. Taken together, these reports may help reset expectations around whether hyperscalers can balance massive AI spending with dependable profits.

In short, next week’s results may determine whether investors rotate back into megacap tech or continue favoring the narrower parts of the AI supply chain that have benefited most from shortages and pricing power so far in 2026.

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The final week of January brings a heavy earnings and dividend calendar, with large cap technology, industrial, financial, and healthcare companies in focus. Investors will watch for signals on global demand, margins, and AI related spending as earnings season reaches some of its most influential names.

Earnings Preview

On Monday, January 26, results are due from AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Nucor Corporation (NUE), Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD), Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY), Brown and Brown Inc. (BRO), W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB), Fanuc Corporation (FANUY), Graco Inc. (GGG), Crane Company (CR), Epiroc AB (EPOAY), and Nitto Denko Corporation (NDEKY). Analysts expect earnings of about $0.37 per share for AGNC on revenue near $940.76 million, $1.97 for Nucor on $7.93 billion, and $1.96 for Steel Dynamics on $4.59 billion. These reports should offer insight into steel demand, insurance pricing, and global manufacturing trends.

On Tuesday, January 27, reports are scheduled from Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC), Kimberly Clark Corporation (KMB), Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX), Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Sysco Corporation (SYY), LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMUY), Synchrony Financial (SYF), HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA), Invesco Ltd. (IVZ), Paccar Inc. (PCAR), F5 Inc. (FFIV), PPG Industries Inc. (PPG), Roper Technologies Inc. (ROP), NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE), Boston Properties Inc. (BXP), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Manhattan Associates Inc. (MANH), and Metro Inc. (MTRAF). Wall Street expects Texas Instruments to post earnings of about $1.28 per share on $4.43 billion in revenue, while Union Pacific is forecast at $2.86 per share on $6.11 billion. Results will highlight trends in semiconductors, freight volumes, healthcare services, and consumer staples.

On Wednesday, January 28, attention shifts to a large group of technology and industrial leaders, including Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), AT&T Inc. (T), International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), Starbucks Corporation (SBUX), ASML Holding NV (ASML), ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA), Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY), Waste Management Inc. (WM), General Dynamics Corporation (GD), GE Vernova Inc. (GEV), Corning Incorporated (GLW), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), Danaher Corporation (DHR), and Elevance Health Inc. (ELV). Analysts expect Microsoft to report earnings of about $3.91 per share on $80.28 billion in revenue, while Meta Platforms is forecast at $8.20 per share on $58.41 billion in revenue. These reports should provide updates on AI spending, cloud growth, advertising demand, and global industrial activity.

On Thursday, January 29, earnings are expected from Apple Inc. (AAPL), Visa Inc. (V), Mastercard Incorporated (MA), Altria Group Inc. (MO), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Nokia Corporation (NOK), Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), Royal Caribbean Group (RCL), Blackstone Inc. (BX), Dow Inc. (DOW), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), KLA Corporation (KLAC), and L3Harris Technologies Inc. (LHX). Forecasts call for $2.67 per share for Apple on $138.38 billion in revenue, $3.14 for Visa on $10.68 billion, and $4.24 for Mastercard on $8.77 billion. These results will offer insight into consumer spending, payment activity, capital spending, and defense demand.

On Friday, January 30, the week wraps up with reports from SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Chevron Corporation (CVX), American Express Company (AXP), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN), Colgate Palmolive Company (CL), Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD), Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR), Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB), Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN), Church and Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD), Brookfield Renewable Corporation (BEP), Aon plc (AON), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. (SMFG), and Imperial Oil Limited (IMO). Analysts expect Exxon Mobil to report earnings of about $1.70 per share on $80.67 billion in revenue, while Chevron is forecast at $1.43 per share on $46.88 billion.

Ex-Dividend Dates This Week

Several large companies will trade ex-dividend during the week.

Monday, January 26:
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) will go ex-dividend with a $1.18 payment next month. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) follows with a $0.12 dividend payable in 20 days. USA Compression Partners LP (USAC) plans a $0.53 distribution in 13 days, while Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) plans a $0.01 distribution in 26 days. Seven Hills Realty Trust (SEVN) will pay $0.28 in 26 days.

Tuesday, January 27:
Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG) trades ex-dividend at $0.35 with a payment next month. Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) follows with a $0.20 payout next month, while Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. (MCB) offers $0.20 in 13 days.

Wednesday, January 28:
The Clorox Company (CLX) will go ex-dividend at $1.24, with payment in 20 days. Paychex Inc. (PAYX) follows with a $1.08 payout next month, while Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) plans a $0.72 distribution in 19 days.

Thursday, January 29:
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) trades ex-dividend at $1.02 with payment in 19 days. Fastenal Company (FAST) follows with a $0.24 payout next month, while Marsh and McLennan Companies Inc. (MMC) will distribute $0.90 in 20 days.

Friday, January 30:
Caseys General Stores Inc. (CASY) goes ex-dividend at $0.57 with a payment in 20 days. Concentrix Corporation (CNXC) follows with a $0.36 payout in 17 days, while Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCPRF) plans a $0.04 distribution in 24 days.

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