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The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Jan. 18

The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, Jan. 18

U.S. stocks finished the week essentially flat as a semiconductor-led bid was offset by softer bank performance and a steady drumbeat of policy headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipped 0.17% to 49,359, the S&P 500 (SPX) eased 0.06% to 6,940, and the Nasdaq (NDX) edged down 0.07% to 25,529.

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Rates were steady but sensitive to Washington noise. The 10-year Treasury yield ended around 4.23%, while volatility stayed muted with the VIX near 15.9. Oil (CL) firmed to roughly $59.27 per barrel, gold (XAUUSD) dipped 0.11% to about $4,596, and Bitcoin hovered near $95,241 as risk appetite held up but didn’t expand.

Chips and AI Under Pressure

First, a small but vital chip input turned into a clear issue for Apple (AAPL) and the wider AI supply chain. The company is facing a tight supply of high-grade glass cloth used in chipboards, which has become harder to source as AI demand rises. Since most supply comes from one Japanese firm, Apple is now competing with Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) for the same limited stock.

As a result, investors are again reminded that AI growth depends on real-world parts, not just software. In addition, relief is not expected soon, which keeps supply risk in place through 2026 and 2027 and may affect costs and launch plans.

At the same time, pressure around Grok and xAI continued to build. The Philippines moved toward blocking access to the AI tool after similar actions in Malaysia and Indonesia. The concerns focus on reports that image tools were used to create sexual content without consent. From an investor’s view, this matters because once governments act, public groups often tighten rules for AI use. Over time, this could raise the bar for safety controls and slow the pace at which new AI tools reach large users.

Stocks That Made the Week

In equity moves, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) and Nvidia helped lift chip shares, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) lagged, leaving indexes little changed.

Elsewhere, Novo Nordisk (NVO) gained after early demand data showed strong first-week use of its oral Wegovy pill. The update sharpened focus on its race with Eli Lilly (LLY), which is preparing its own pill launch.

In defense-related news, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) jumped after securing status as a prime contract awardee under the Department of Defense Golden Dome program. The deal improves its ability to bid on future work.

Housing also stayed in focus after the White House outlined plans to allow some $401k funds to be used for home down payments. Investors are now watching whether this helps buyers or adds pressure to prices.

The Week Ahead

Looking forward, inflation data will be the main driver for markets. The Personal Income and Outlays report for October and November are due on Thursday and will include the key PCE inflation reading. If inflation or spending runs hot, rates could move higher and weigh on growth stocks. If data cools, hopes for easier policy later in 2026 may grow.

In tech, attention will turn to early earnings and AI spending plans. Investors will focus on guidance for data centers, chip supply, and pricing power. OpenAI plans to test ads in ChatGPT also keeps AI business models in view.

In energy, oil prices remain stuck in a narrow range. With supply ample, prices may keep moving sideways unless demand improves or global risks rise.

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The third week of January brings a busy earnings and dividend calendar, with large-cap technology, financials, healthcare, and industrial names in focus. Investors will look for signals on consumer demand, credit conditions, and AI-related spending as earnings season begins to broaden beyond banks.

Earnings Preview

On Tuesday, January 20, results are due from Netflix (NFLX), 3M (MMM), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), U.S. Bancorp (USB), D.R. Horton (DHI), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), KeyCorp (KEY), Fastenal Company (FAST), and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB). Analysts expect earnings per share of about $0.55 for Netflix on revenue near $11.97 billion, $1.80 for 3M on $6.01 billion, and $2.93 for United Airlines on $15.37 billion. The group should provide insight into streaming demand, industrial activity, airline travel, and regional banking trends.

On Wednesday, January 21, reports are scheduled from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Halliburton (HAL), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Prologis (PLD), Ally Financial (ALLY), Truist Financial (TFC), Travelers Companies (TRV), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), and Caci International (CACI). Wall Street expects Johnson and Johnson to post earnings of about $2.48 per share on $24.16 billion in revenue, while Charles Schwab is forecast at $1.39 per share on $6.36 billion. Results will highlight trends in healthcare, energy services, asset management, real estate, and consumer lending.

On Thursday, January 22, attention shifts to a mix of technology, payments, consumer, and industrial leaders, including Intel (INTC), Visa (V), GE Aerospace (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Alcoa (AA), and KLA (KLAC). Forecasts call for $0.08 per share for Intel on $13.40 billion in revenue, $3.14 for Visa on $10.68 billion, and $1.86 for Procter & Gamble on $22.31 billion. These reports should offer updates on chips, consumer spending, medical devices, and global manufacturing.

On Friday, January 23, earnings are expected from Schlumberger (SLB), Telefonaktiebolaget Ericsson (ERIC), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Comerica (CMA), Webster Financial (WBS), and First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA). Analysts expect Schlumberger to report earnings of about $0.74 per share on $9.55 billion in revenue, while regional banks will close out the week with updates on lending and deposit trends.

Ex-Dividend Dates This Week

Several large companies will trade ex-dividend during the week.

Tuesday, January 20:
Caterpillar
(CAT) will go ex dividend with a $1.51 payment next month. Dell Technologies (DELL) follows with a $0.53 dividend payable in 13 days. Zoetis (ZTS) plans a $0.53 distribution in two months, while PNC Financial Services (PNC) offers $1.70 in 19 days. Carrier Global (CARR) will pay $0.24 in 23 days. Enel SpA (ENLAY) and Snam SpA (SNMRF) also go ex dividend at $0.13 and $0.15, respectively.

Wednesday, January 21:
Lowe’s Companies (LOW) trades ex dividend at $1.20 with a payment in 18 days. Colgate-Palmolive (CL) follows with a $0.52 payout in 27 days.

Thursday, January 22:
CVS Health (CVS) will trade ex-dividend at $0.67, with the payment due in 16 days.

Friday, January 23:
Pfizer (PFE) goes ex-dividend at $0.43, with a payment due in two months. Procter & Gamble (PG) follows at $1.06 next month. Coca Cola Bottling Co Consolidated (COKE) will pay $0.25 in 20 days, while Bank of New York Mellon (BK) offers $0.53 in 19 days. nVent Electric (NVT) plans a $0.21 payout in 20 days, and Pentair (PNR) will distribute $0.27 on the same schedule.

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