What Wall Street experts are saying about Alibaba ahead of earnings

Alibaba Group (BABA) is scheduled to report results of its fiscal fourth quarter before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, May 15, and will hold a conference call to discuss the results at 7:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time the same day. What to watch for:

EXPECTATIONS: Current consensus adjusted EPS and revenue forecasts for Alibaba’s December-end quarter stand at $1.48 and $33.08B, respectively, according to data from Zacks estimates.

CATALYST DRIVEN IDEA: Morgan Stanley named Alibaba a “Catalyst Driven Idea” ahead of the company reporting its fiscal Q4 results on May 15, telling investors that the firm thinks Alibaba will benefit from “robust” China AI inference demand as both an “AI enabler” with its cloud offerings and “adopter” with its applications. The firm thinks AliCloud is poised to benefit from surging AI inference demand as other hyperscalers like Tencent and Bytedance prioritize internal demand, leaving AliCloud as “a unique CSP with sizable allocation for external customers.” The firm, which believes upcoming cloud revenue growth will be the next share price catalyst, has an Overweight rating and $180 price target on Alibaba shares.

BEST IDEA ENABLER: In a separate note, Morgan Stanley said that Alibaba is both an AI enabler and adopter trading at an attractive 2026 price to earnings of 12-times. The firm sees potential cloud revenue beat as a near-term catalyst, and says AI-driven e-commerce lift may fuel further re-rating in the medium/long term. Alibaba has recently upgraded its one-hour delivery “Xiaoshida” to instant commerce “Shanguo,” tapping into the fast-growing quick commerce opportunity with an estimated TAM of $267B by 2030. Morgan Stanley believes leveraging Taobao’s traffic and Eleme’s on-demand delivery capabilities allows Alibaba to enhance its quick commerce offerings without jeopardizing TTG’s profitability and Eleme’s break-even roadmap. The firm continues to estimate a 1% CAGR for TTG EBITA in 2025-2028 and local services to reach EBITA break-even in 2026.

TARGET CUTS AHEAD OF EARNINGS: BofA lowered the firm’s price target on Alibaba to $146 from $15, but kept a Buy rating on the shares. Ahead of the company’s expected fiscal Q4 report in mid-May, the firm forecast total year-over-year revenue growth of 7.0% to RMB 237.4B, exceeding the consensus call for 6.5% growth. However, BofA lowered its 2026-2027 revenue forecasts by 1%-3% to reflect higher macro uncertainty after U.S. tariff changes.

Citi also lowered the firm’s price target on Buy-rated Alibaba to $169 from $170. Heading into the company’s fiscal Q4 print in mid-May, the focus is likely to be on trade tariff impact on domestic consumption trend and any impact on cloud demand from large enterprises and small business customers, the firm tells investors in a research note. Citi sees an attractive valuation following the recent selloff.

OF NOTE: The White House announced last month that de minimis tariff exemptions, which allow packages worth up to $800 from China and Hong Kong to enter the U.S. duty-free, would end on May 2, Bloomberg’s Spencer Soper reports. The change is part of an effort to prevent illegal or dangerous goods, including opioids, from being shipped into the country.

Earlier this week, The White House said in a statement, “The United States will modify the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of China set forth in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles pursuant to the terms of said Order; and removing the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Executive Order 14259 of April 8, 2025 and Executive Order 14266 of April 9, 2025.

“China will modify accordingly the application of the additional ad valorem rate of duty on articles of the United States set forth in Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 4 of 2025, by suspending 24 percentage points of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining additional ad valorem rate of 10 percent on those articles, and removing the modified additional ad valorem rates of duty on those articles imposed by Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 5 of 2025 and Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council No. 6 of 2025; and adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove the non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025.”

Check out recent Media Buzz Sentiment on Alibaba as measured by TipRanks.