Wells upgrades Genius Sports, sees upside to forecasts from advertising growth

As previously reported, Wells Fargo upgraded Genius Sports (GENI) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $16, up from $13. As the firm dove into the media/advertising opportunity presented by Genius’ management at its November Investor Day, Wells’ first response was the company’s NFL relationship seems too good to be true given the company’s ability to enable live viewership of NFL games across the company’s platform partners. The firm sees potential for upside above and beyond management’s long-term guide. Further, Wells believes the implied level of direct NFL advertising and related brand/ad opportunities could prove conservative looking out to 2028 for the self-serve portion of the forecast. The firm thinks the NFL could represent $50M-plus of self-serve ad revenue, and it estimates about $350M of Media revenue by 2028 relative to the company’s $300M guidance.