Wall Street picks winners among food stocks benefiting from tariff relief

Commenting on President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would be rolling back reciprocal tariffs on a host of food items, including drinks, spices, fruits and meat, Piper Sandler told investors that the move is positive for Vita Coco (COCO), Hershey (HSY) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP). JPMorgan also named Hershey as biggest beneficiary in the food producer group from the tariff relief, alongside J.M. Smucker (SJM) and McCormick (MKC).

TARIFF CUTS: President Trump on Friday night rolled back reciprocal tariffs on a host of food items, including drinks, spices, fruits and meat. The White House said in a statement, “Specifically, I have determined that certain agricultural products shall not be subject to the reciprocal tariff imposed under Executive 14257, as amended. Accordingly, updated versions of Annex II to Executive Order 14257, as amended, and the Annex to Executive Order 14346 entitled, “Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners,” are attached to this order and shall be effective with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on November 13, 2025. In my judgment, these modifications are necessary and appropriate to deal with the national emergency declared in Executive Order 14257.”

Meanwhile, Vita Coco said in a statement that, “The updated version of Annex II to Executive Order 14257 associated with this announcement includes the tariff codes applicable to coconut water products, which are the bulk of Vita Coco’s portfolio. Under the Executive Order, the Company believes that Vita Coco coconut water products will be exempt from reciprocal tariffs as of November 13, 2025, although the 40% ad valorem duty applicable to imports from Brazil will continue for the time being. The Company believes that the average tariff rate for its products arriving in the United States will decrease from the previously announced 23% to approximately 6% based on current sourcing and product mix.”

COMPANIES SET TO BENEFIT: Piper Sandler says President Trump’s exemption of coffee and cocoa from higher tariff rates, effective November 13, is positive for Vita Coco, Hershey and Keurig Dr Pepper. Late Friday’s announcement is on top of previously announced lower tariffs on most imports from Argentina, Guatemala, and El Salvador, and 15% tariffs on Ecuador, the firm tells investors in a research note. Piper points out that Hershey’s cocoa, Keurig’s coffee, and Vita’s coconut water are now exempt. For Hershey, cocoa import tariff costs are estimated at $50M per quarter, and for Vita, its 2026 tariffs could have been $55M, which now would appear to reset to zero, the firm contends.

JPMorgan views Hershey, J.M. Smucker and McCormick as the biggest beneficiaries in the food producer group from the White House’s executive order that exempts a range of agricultural products that cannot be sourced from the U.S. from import tariffs, most notably cocoa, coffee, and many spices and seasonings. This order could help to alleviate the “sizable earnings overhangs” on the three companies from tariffs, the firm tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan sees Hormel Foods (HRL), Lamb Weston (LW), Kraft Heinz (KHC), and Conagra Brands (CAG) as more modest beneficiaries from the tariff relief.

UPGRADE, TARGET INCREASES: BofA upgraded Vita Coco to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $54, up from $48, following the Friday post-market announcement from White House excluding certain agricultural products, including coconut water, from reciprocal tariffs. The firm’s revised estimates reflect tariff exemption relief effective November 13, and it removes the incremental tariff headwind it previously forecast, raising its FY26 adjusted EBITDA estimate by $37.5M to $128.1M, BofA tells investors.

Meanwhile, Jefferies raised the firm’s price target on Buy-rated Vita Coco to $58 from $54, noting that various tropical fruits and fruit juices are exempt from the 10% global tariff and coconut water is on that list. Combined with shelf space gains via Walmart’s (WMT) Modern Hydration aisle in 2026, the firm sees tariff relief as “another major catalyst for Vita Coco.”

Evercore ISI also raised the firm’s price target on Outperform-rated Vita Coco to $55 from $50 after the company updated its model for the latest tariff considerations after the recent Executive Order modifying the scope of the reciprocal tariff with respect to certain agricultural products. Based on its current inventory position and sales plans, Vita Coco does not expect the tariff relief announced to have a material impact on its 2025 results, but it believes that the average tariff rate for its products arriving in the U.S. will decrease from the previously announced 23% to about 6%.

PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Vita Coco are up over 9% at $47.95, while Hershey is trading higher about 2% at $180.87.