UBS sees Q4 NII in Global Wealth Management remaining ‘broadly stable’

The company said, “With valuations elevated across most asset classes entering the fourth quarter, investors remain engaged but increasingly focused on hedging downside risks, which is also evident in periodic headline-driven spikes in volatility. Against this backdrop, transactional activity and our deal pipelines remain healthy, though sentiment can shift quickly as confidence in the outlook is tested and seasonal effects come into play. Furthermore, macro uncertainties along with a strong Swiss franc and higher US tariffs are clouding the outlook for the Swiss economy, and a prolonged US government shutdown may delay capital market activities. In the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income in US dollars to remain broadly stable in each of Global Wealth Management and Personal & Corporate Banking. Credit loss expense in Personal & Corporate Banking is projected at around CHF 80M. Quarter-end transactional activity levels in the Investment Bank are likely to normalize compared with the strong prior-year period when markets were unusually active ahead of the US administration change. As in prior years, the Group is likely to see more modest sequential gross and net saves in the fourth quarter, reflecting our continued focus on the Swiss platform migration and a seasonal uptick in select non-personnel costs, notably the UK bank levy. Our reported net profit is expected to be influenced by integration costs of around $1.1B, partly offset by acquisition-related revenues of around $0.5B. The year-end 2025 CET1 capital ratio is expected to decrease sequentially reflecting an accrual for intended share repurchases in 2026, as well as the full-year 2025 dividend. We remain focused on actively engaging with our clients, helping them to navigate a complex environment while executing on our growth and integration plans. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2026 financial targets, leveraging the power of our diversified business model and global footprint.”