Trump Trade: Trump’s revised tax bill clears the House

Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Donald Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly:

TAX BILL: Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives came together early Thursday to pass President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill out of the chamber on a narrow vote, CNBC’s Christina Wilkie and Erin Doherty report. Every Democrat on the floor voted no, as did Republican Reps. Warren Davidson of Ohio and Thomas Massie of Kentucky. Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., who chairs the conservative House Freedom Caucus, voted present. The final vote tally was 215-214. 

The revised version of President Trump’s tax and spending bill includes a higher limit on the deduction for state and local taxes and other changes to win over GOP factions, Bloomberg’s Steven T. Dennis, Ari Natter, Erik Wasson, and Emily Birnbaum report. The updated legislation would speed up cuts to Medicaid, eliminate Biden-era clean energy tax breaks, and make other changes, including raising the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, which would begin this year. Publicly traded companies in the healthcare space include CVS Health (CVS), Centene (CNC), Cigna (CI), Elevance Health (ELV), Humana (HUM), Molina Healthcare (MOH) and UnitedHealth (UNH). Publicly traded companies in the clean energy space include Array Technologies (ARRY), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Emeren (SOL), Enphase Energy (ENPH), FTC Solar (FTCI), First Solar (FSLR), JinkoSolar (JKS), Maxeon Solar (MAXN), Shoals Technologies (SHLS), SolarEdge (SEDG), SunPower (SPWR) and Sunrun (RUN). 

In a statement on the passage of reconciliation legislation by the U.S. House of Representatives, Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association, said that, “If Congress does not change course, this legislation will upend an economic boom in this country that has delivered an historic American manufacturing renaissance, lower electric bills, hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs, and tens of billions of dollars of investments primarily to states that voted for President Trump. This unworkable legislation is willfully ignorant of the fact that deploying solar and storage is the only way the U.S. power grid can meet the demand of American consumers, businesses, and innovation. If this bill becomes law, America will effectively surrender the AI race to China and communities nationwide will face blackouts. But that’s not all: Americans’ electric bills will soar. Hundreds of factories will close. Hundreds of billions of dollars in local investments will vanish. Hundreds of thousands of people will lose their jobs. Families will lose the freedom to control their energy costs. And our electric grid will be destabilized. It’s not too late for Congress to get this right. The solar and storage industry is ready to get to work with the U.S. Senate on a more thoughtful and measured approach to unleashing true American energy dominance to create a brighter future for all Americans.” 

BMO Capital downgraded Sunrun to Underperform from Market Perform with a price target of $4, down from $9. The firm says revisions to President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” suggest Sunrun’s ability to claim the solar investment tax credit on residential solar leases under Section 48E in fiscal 2026 and beyond is in jeopardy. While the bill is not finalized and could undergo multiple iterations in the Senate, with the elimination of section 25D residential credits in last week’s draft, there is limited political will to claw back residential credits in any Senate version, the firm tells investors in a research note. BMO says that with over 90% of Sunrun’s customers under third-party ownership structures whereby homeowners’ lease or rent their solar equipment and the company retains tax credits, the termination of 48E for residential solar leases is a “material risk” to the company’s business model.

Mizuho says the House cut renewable incentives for solar, wind and batteries in the tech-neutral tax credits to now end completely in 2028, and pulled forward the anti-China policy timeline. The “key winner” was First Solar in this version, but the anti-China policy is negative for demand and the whole industry, the firm tells investors in a research note. Mizuho’s checks at the CleanPower conference expect positive changes for the industry in the Senate version of the bill. The faster Inflation Reduction Act cut-off is in line with news earlier this week but the stricter timeline and language on foreign entity of concern to get the tax credits 2026 to 2028 is the “bigger industry challenge,” according to the firm. 

GOING PUBLIC: In a post on Truth Social, President Trump stated, “I am giving very serious consideration to bringing Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) public. I will be speaking with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, among others, and will be making a decision in the near future. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing very well, throwing off a lot of CASH, and the time would seem to be right. Stay tuned!” 

Keefe Bruyette sees shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reacting positively to President Trump’s social media post about “giving very serious consideration” to taking the government sponsored entities public. However, “serious hurdles” to privatization exist, including deciding what to do about Treasury’s investment in the companies, recalibrating capital standards to generate double-digit returns on equity, and deciding on the nature of the implicit guaranty, which is crucial to the functioning of the agency mortgage backed security market, the firm tells investors in a research note.

CREDIT AGENCIES UNDER PRESSURE: Federal Housing Finance Administration Director Bill Pulte said via X, “Why do some credit reports cost double (Biden’s term) from what they did during President Trump’s first term?” Shares of FICO (FICO), Equifax (EFX) and TransUnion (TRU) traded down following Pulte’s comments.