Target downgraded, Dollar Tree upgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• Barclays upgraded Dollar Tree (DLTR) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $120, up from $95. The company is positioned to benefit from a trade down by consumes, which will accelerates in the second half of 2025, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Pinterest (PINS) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $45, up from $37. The firm’s advertising checks are constructive on Pinterest’s improving ad efficiency and performance-driven growth.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Etsy (ETSY) to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $50, up from $38. The firm sees a more balanced catalyst path for the shares after they underperformed the S&P 500 Index by 20% over the past year.
• Seaport Research upgraded both Analog Devices (ADI) and Texas Instruments (TXN) to Neutral from Sell with no price target. While the firm sees “no strong catalysts,” it acknowledges that it was “wrong” in its prior thought that the analog inventory cycle was not going to improve and the macro economy was slowing.
• Monness Crespi upgraded Fiserv (FI) to Neutral from Sell with no price target, telling investors that the firm sees fair value at about $155 per share. The firm’s sense is that the market has been looking to revalue the stock as long as the Clover volume trajectory remains above double digits over the medium term and it recommends investors to “be ready” for the next opportunity.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Barclays downgraded Target (TGT) to Underweight from Equal Weight with an unchanged price target of $91. The firm says that absent a bigger strategic shift, the company’s sales will continue to underperform.
• Needham downgraded Sarepta (SRPT) to Underperform from Hold without a price target. The company late Friday reported receiving an informal request from the FDA to voluntarily halt shipments of Elevidys and that it denied this request, the firm tells investors in a research note. Mizuho, Leerink, and Baird also downgraded Sarepta to Neutral-equivalent ratings, while Deutsche Bank cut its rating on the name to Sell.
• Truist downgraded Biogen (BIIB) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $142, down from $199, after a transfer in coverage. The stock’s discounted multiple versus pees is warranted given the “suboptimal” growth outlook for Biogen’s commercial franchise, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Argus downgraded Elevance Health (ELV) to Hold from Buy, citing the ongoing pressures on the company’s profit margins from medical cost trends in its Medicaid and ACA marketplace businesses.
• Truist downgraded Royal Caribbean (RCL) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $337, up from $275. Truist has observed a bounce-back in bookings since April’s pullback, but when averaging March-early July’s year over year bookings, demand pace is only up low-to-mid-single digits, well off the high-teens monthly pace that 2024 averaged, the firm tells investors in a research note.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Loop Capital initiated coverage of Autodesk (ADSK) with a Hold rating and $320 price target. Loop is constructive on Autodesk’s long-term prospects but believes the stock’s current valuation reflects much of its expected growth and execution improvements.
• Benchmark initiated coverage of General Motors (GM) with a Buy rating and $65 price target, calling the stock “a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to a durable, cash-generative U.S. industrial franchise with underappreciated upside potential.”
• Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Affirm (AFRM) with an Outperform rating and $80 price target, offering 15% upside potential. The firm argues that Affirm stands out as a leader in the Buy Now, Pay Later space with its advanced underwriting, robust funding strategy, strong merchant relationships, and transparent pricing model.
• Stephens initiated coverage of Paylocity (PCTY) with an Equal Weight rating and $200 price target. The firm believes the company is well positioned to gain share “while navigating sub-optimal labor market conditions,” but believes the valuation reflects expectations of a conservative guide with modest outperformance.
• Barclays initiated coverage of Kroger (KR) with an Equal Weight rating and $75 price target. The firm is positive on Kroger’s post-deal refocus. Barclays also started Sprouts Farmers (SFM) with an Equal Weight and Albertsons (ACI) with an Underweight.