Street Fight: JPMorgan says sell Circle, others say buy as coverage rolls out

Circle (CRCL) is starting to see coverage roll out as the quiet period for banks that underwrote the company’s initial public offering expires. Several Wall Street firms such as Citi, Barclays, Bernstein and Needham initiated coverage of the name with Buy-equivalent ratings, while JPMorgan started coverage with an Underweight. Citi is positive on Circle’s opportunity to be a leading enabler of stablecoin adoption, an opinion shared by Needham. On the more bearish side, JPMorgan cites Circle’s “elevated” current market capitalization for its Underweight rating and says it sees competition as a potential threat to the company.

LEADING ENABLER OF STABLECOIN ADOPTION: Citi initiated coverage of Circle with a Buy rating and $243 price target Stablecoins offer incremental speed, cost, and transparency improvements for many payment types, but their “key technology advantage lies in their programmability,” which the firm believes can introduce new payments use cases, the firm tells investors. Circle’s “key competitive strength is its neutrality,” adds Citi, which is positive on Circle’s opportunity to be a leading enabler of stablecoin adoption.

Needham also started coverage of Circle with a Buy rating and $250 price target The firm views stablecoins as a fast-growing paradigm shifting part of the financial ecosystem. KeyBanc expects USDC to be dominant within. Its thesis is underpinned by USDC dominance as the “reserve asset” in DeFi; share gains on USDT as the GENIUS Act comes into effect; international stablecoin adoption as a conduit for USD growth globally; upside in payments and remittances; operating leverage in the model with many expenses fixed. The firm believes Circle could be a company in a paradigm shifting segment that supports a premium valuation akin to a Tesla (TSLA) or dominant AI company.

Meanwhile, Bernstein initiated coverage of Circle with an Outperform rating and $230 price target Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network, with a “hard to replicate” regulatory edge, liquidity head start and “marquee distribution partnerships,” the firm tells investors. Over the long term, Bernstein expects stablecoins to evolve from “money-rail of crypto markets to money-rail of the internet” and views Circle as “an investor must-hold” to participate in the new internet-scale financial system built for the next decade.

Starting coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and $215 price target Barclays says it views Circle as “one of the only ways for public company investors to play the theme” as blockchain technology is integrated into the traditional financial ecosystem. Circle operates one of the largest stablecoin networks in the world, anchored around USDC, the company’s 1:1 reserve-backed U.S. dollar denominated payment stablecoin, notes the analyst, who argues that a “steady drumbeat of stablecoin-related news should send shares higher.”

SELL CIRCLE: More bearish on the name, JPMorgan initiated coverage of Circle with an Underweight rating and $80 price target While the firm views Circle as well positioned in the nascent stablecoin market with an early-mover advantage in “what has been a winner-takes-most market,” and thinks “highly” of the Circle management team and is confident in the outlook for outsized stablecoin and USDC growth, JPMorgan cites Circle’s “elevated” current market capitalization for its Underweight rating. With the firm witnessing the launch of tokenized deposit accounts, digital money market funds, and a host of new entrants looking to enter into the digital dollar market, it sees competition as a potential threat to Circle. The firm added that its December 2026 price target of $80 per share implies a market cap of about $21B, noting that the mid-point of the IPO was priced at $31 per share, or an $8B market cap. 

ON THE SIDELINES: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Circle with a Neutral rating and $83 price target implying 54% downside from current share levels. Circle is a “unique asset” in the public markets, as the only pure play crypto-native company that has potential upside from expansion into “very large” existing fiat markets, without the direct price volatility inherent to crypto trading, the firm tells investors in a research note. Goldman sees a “healthy growth outlook” for the company but says the stock’s current valuation “appears elevated.” Deutsche Bank and Oppenheimer also started coverage of the stock with Neutral-equivalent ratings.

PRICE ACTION: In Monday morning trading, shares of Circle have gained almost 4% to $186.75.

“Street Fight” is The Fly’s recurring series of exclusive stories that highlight a stock or sector that is in focus amid divergent views from Wall Street analysts.