Steel Dynamics price target lowered to $152 from $153 at KeyBanc

KeyBanc lowered the firm’s price target on Steel Dynamics (STLD) to $152 from $153 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Post Steel Dynamics’ Q2 results, the firm lowers its 2025 estimates to reflect challenges in galvanized sheet spreads, intermittent Sinton volatility, and higher near-term aluminum startup costs. While these factors are holding back current earnings power, reversal of these dynamics should set up dramatically stronger earnings power in 2026-plus, KeyBanc adds. The firm also remains intrigued by strong through-cycle free cash flow to equity, providing bandwidth to potentially outsized capital returns, and nascent exposure to future aluminum EBITDA growth in 2027-2028 when ideal product mix is achieved.