Senate version of budget bill positive for First Solar, Sunrun, says BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Ameet Thakkar notes that the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – OBBBA – is positive for First Solar (FSLR) as it removes the risk to reduction of 45X Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit and that the company can continue booking $0.17/w of stacked credit vs falling to $0.07/w. For SunRun (RUN), the solar lease eligibility for Section 48E ITCs – Investment Tax Credits – is also unexpectedly back in until 2027-end, and given high short interest and greater dependence on ITCs for residential solar economics to support the company’s balance sheet, the firm expects a strong positive reaction, BMO stated. Fluence Energy (FLNC) should also react positively as the Energy Storage/Batteries are largely unscathed from any changes to phase out timeline and FEOC changes that likely curtail utility scale solar in FY27, BMO noted. Ballard Power (BLDP) will likely react positive in sentiment with hydrogen PTC extension, BMO states. The firm also noted that while lease change is a positive for Enphase (ENPH), investors will focus on continued phase out of section 25D credits that are historically more prevalent for customers, leading to a negative reaction. In pre-market trade, First Solar is up 8%, SunRun is up 9%, Fluence is up 3%, Ballard Power is up 3%, and Enphase is down 2.5%.