Sector Spotlight: Trump administration seeks hometown discount from Big Pharma

Welcome to the latest “Sector Spotlight,” where The Fly looks at a new industry every week and highlights its happenings. This edition focuses on the pharmaceutical sector following a busy week of earnings and political news.

PHARMACEUTICAL NEWS: The Trump administration has been talking to drugmakers about ways to raise prices of medicines in Europe and elsewhere in order to cut drug costs in the United States, Reuters’ Patrick Wingrove and Maggie Fick reported, citing a White House official and three pharmaceutical industry sources. U.S. officials told drug companies it would support their international negotiations with governments if they adopt “most favored nation” pricing under which U.S. drug costs match the lower rates offered to other wealthy countries.

President Donald Trump said while being interviewed on CNBC earlier this week that separate tariff announcements are coming soon on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals.

GSK (GSK) announced that, in connection with the mRNA patent settlement reached between CureVac (CVAC) and BioNTech (BNTX) on, the company will receive an upfront settlement of $370M. GSK will also receive a 1% royalty in respect of US sales of influenza, COVID-19 and related combination mRNA vaccine products by BioNTech and Pfizer (PFE) from the beginning of 2025. These payments are due to GSK in accordance with the terms of its existing license agreement with CureVac. Of the upfront settlement amount, $320m will be in cash. The remainder is attributed to the value of an amendment to GSK’s existing agreement with CureVac, which includes a significant reduction in royalties to be paid by GSK on our potential future mRNA influenza, COVID-19 and influenza/COVID-19 combination products. If the pending acquisition of CureVac by BioNTech successfully closes, the mRNA patent litigation between CureVac and BioNTech outside of the US will also be settled. GSK would then be entitled to an additional $130 million in cash and 1% royalty payments in respect of future sales outside of the US by BioNTech and Pfizer.

Sales of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Mounjaro doubled in India in July compared to June, Rishika Sadam and Kashish Tandon of Reuters noted, citing research firm Pharmarack. Demand for anti-obesity drugs has been on an upswing in the country.

Novartis (NVS) has made a takeover offer for Avidity Biosciences (RNA), which has a market value of $4.3B, The Financial Times’ Oliver Barnes, James Fontanella-Khan and Hannah Kuchler wrote. Avidity, which has three medicines in clinical trials that treat different forms of muscular dystrophy, is working with advisers to assess its options, people familiar with the matter say.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced the beginning of a coordinated wind-down of its mRNA vaccine development activities under the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, including the cancellation and de-scoping of various contracts and solicitations. The decision follows a comprehensive review of mRNA-related investments initiated during the COVID-19 public health emergency. “We reviewed the science, listened to the experts, and acted,” said HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. “BARDA is terminating 22 mRNA vaccine development investments because the data show these vaccines fail to protect effectively against upper respiratory infections like COVID and flu. We’re shifting that funding toward safer, broader vaccine platforms that remain effective even as viruses mutate.” The wind-down affects a range of programs including: Cancellation of BARDA’s award to Moderna (MRNA)/UTMB for an mRNA-based H5N1 vaccine; Termination of contracts with Emory University and Tiba Biotech; De-scoping of mRNA-related work in existing contracts with Luminary Labs, ModeX, and Seqirus; Rejection or cancellation of multiple pre-award solicitations, including proposals from Pfizer , Sanofi Pasteur (SNY), CSL Seqirus, Gritstone, and others, as part of BARDA’s Rapid Response Partnership Vehicle and VITAL Hub, and; Restructuring of collaborations with DoD-JPEO, affecting nucleic acid-based vaccine projects with AAHI, AstraZeneca (AZN), and HDT Bio.

Bristol Myers (BMY) announced that the FDA has accepted the supplemental biologics license application for Breyanzi as a potential treatment for adult patients with relapsed or refractory marginal zone lymphoma who have received at least two prior lines of systemic therapy.

EARNINGS RECAP: Eli Lilly’s second quarter results beat expectations and the company raised its full-year outlook as well. However, shares of the company were down 7% on Thursday morning after the company reported data from a late-stage trial of its under-development obesity pill.

“Lilly delivered another quarter of strong performance, achieving 38% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro and sustained momentum across our key medicines,” said David Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO. “Our pipeline continued to advance, highlighted by positive study results in oncology and cardiometabolic health-including Mounjaro’s demonstrated cardio-protective effects in patients with type 2 diabetes and heart disease and strong data for our oral incretin, orforglipron, in obesity. We also expanded manufacturing capacity to meet increasing demand and invested in key R&D initiatives to support our long-term growth.”

Leerink downgraded Eli Lilly to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $715, down from $944. Following “disappointing” initial results for orforglipron, the company’s oral GLP-1, the firm is lowering its long-term projections and notes that its “investment thesis has changed” as it no longer expects upward pressure on long-term consensus expectations. The firm also noted that Lilly’s major competitor Novo Nordisk is struggling and may need to continue to use price to compete in its duopoly while the firm expects growing competition from various competitors starting late decade.

Conversely, JPMorgan views the post-earnings selloff in shares of Eli Lilly as providing a “compelling” entry point. The Q2 report came in well ahead of consensus estimates and Lilly is raised guidance, which should dispel some weight loss market concerns, the analyst tells investors. However, the firm says the bigger focus was on orforglipron’s Phase 3 obesity data where weight loss came in slightly below expectations. JPMorgan does not see 1-2 percentage points lower weight loss as meaningfully changing the use case for orforglipron. It keeps an Overweight rating on Lilly shares with a $1,100 price target.

Pfizer also experienced a beat and raise quarter in Q2. Although, the company did note that its FY25 guidance does not anticipate any share repurchases. On the company’s Q2 earning call, Pfizer noted that the company’s guidance “absorbs the impact of the currently imposed tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico as well as potential price changes this year based on the letter received on July 31 from President Trump.” Later in the call, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the company is “in very active discussions” at “the highest levels of this government.” Bourla added: “I discussed myself with the president after he sent the letter to me and all the others. We discussed a lot with the Secretary Kennedy, we discussed a lot with Doctor Post who is responsible for implementing a lot of these things. And I would say only that these discussions are extremely productive. I think we understand where the president comes from, and we are engaging in a productive way to find a solution. But because we are in active discussions, it’s inappropriate for me to start providing more details because I don’t want to say things while discussing with them. So I understand that many others may have questions about that, and I’m not sure I can give more information than what I just told you. That we had a letter that says a base of what the president wants. The letter asks a lot from us. But we are engaged in productive discussions with them.”

Following the report, Citi analyst Geoff Meacham raised the firm’s price target on Pfizer to $26 from $25 and reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported strong Q2 results, but policy headwinds warrant a continued cautious stance, the analyst told investors.