Sector Spotlight: President Trump’s 50% copper tariff shakes up mining industry

Welcome to the latest edition of “Sector Spotlight,” where The Fly looks at a new industry every week and highlights its happenings.

MINING SECTOR NEWS: Hudbay Minerals (HBM) continues to respond to the wildfire situation in northern Manitoba and is working closely with local and provincial authorities to ensure its employees remain safe as well as comply with the mandatory wildfire evacuation order effective for the town of Snow Lake. As a result, the company has enabled a controlled, safe and orderly temporary suspension of operations in Snow Lake. Through the company’s emergency preparedness procedures, all assets have been secured, and a limited workforce remains at site to conduct ongoing monitoring programs and assist with emergency activities. Hudbay believes its infrastructure and facilities in Snow Lake are well-protected from the wildfires and have a low risk of being damaged. Activities in Flin Flon continue unaffected given the current wildfires are not located near the city of Flin Flon. Some exploration activities near Snow Lake have been paused. Hudbay expects operations to resume efficiently once the wildfire situation improves. The company continues to expect to achieve its annual guidance metrics for Manitoba in 2025 despite the temporary wildfire impacts.

President Donald Trump stated in a post to Truth Social, “I am announcing a 50% TARIFF on Copper, effective August 1, 2025, after receiving a robust NATIONAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT. Copper is necessary for Semiconductors, Aircraft, Ships, Ammunition, Data Centers, Lithium-ion Batteries, Radar Systems, Missile Defense Systems, and even, Hypersonic Weapons, of which we are building many. Copper is the second most used material by the Department of Defense! Why did our foolish (and SLEEPY!) “Leaders” decimate this important Industry? This 50% TARIFF will reverse the Biden Administration’s thoughtless behavior, and stupidity. America will, once again, build a DOMINANT Copper Industry. THIS IS, AFTER ALL, OUR GOLDEN AGE!”

President Donald Trump indicated the U.S. would implement a higher-than-expected 50% tariff on copper imports, which has since spurred a spike in New York futures and a drop in the global benchmark, Katharine Gemmell and Martin Richie of Bloomberg reported. The plan marks the latest move in a difficult period for industrial commodities, as the U.S. leader works to push for more mining and smelting at home.

Rio Tinto’s new CEO should be open to merger and acquisition deals as well as sharpening productivity and cost cuts, Melanie Burton and Clara Denina of Reuters (FCX) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $50, up from $45. While UBS remains constructive on the medium-term outlook for copper, it expects softening in demand and fundamentals to weigh on prices over the next six months. The firm now sees a balanced risk/reward on Freeport shares with potential downside to copper prices.

National Bank raised the firm’s price target on Teck Resources (TECK) to C$66 from C$65 and reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares. Additionally, National Bank increased its price target on Hudbay Minerals to C$16.50 from C$14.50 and maintained an Outperform rating on the shares.

Scotiabank boosted the firm’s price target on Freeport-McMoRan to $52 from $48 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm believes Freeport-McMoRan is the biggest winner of punitive Copper tariffs given its domestic production and exposure to premium Comex prices, the analyst told investors in a research note.

JPMorgan elevated its price target on Freeport-McMoRan to $56 from $42 and held an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm also heightened its price target on Teck Resources to $46 from $41 and reaffirmed an Overweight rating on the shares. JPMorgan increased the price target as part of a Q2 earnings preview for base metals. It increased copper price targets to reflect higher commodity pricing and easing recession risk.

Stifel initiated coverage of Teck Resources with a Hold rating and C$60 price target. Stifel also started coverage of Freeport-McMoRan with a Buy rating and $56 price target. The firm, which has a “tactical” gold price target of $3,800/oz on a six-to-twelve-month view, argues that gold equities can “go much higher” compared to the price of gold and S&P 500. On copper, which the firm says is “under-owned,” it advises increased exposure to take advantage of heightened supply stresses and estimates the incentive copper price is $5.00/lb.

Citi raised the firm’s price target on Freeport-McMoRan to $48 from $44 and backed a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q2 earnings preview on Tuesday. The firm also added an “upside 90-day catalyst watch” on the shares. Citi expects a 25% tariff on copper in the next 90 days and believes Freeport will be the “only real winner” in the copper group given its large U.S. operations.

Veritas analyst Martin Pradier initiated coverage of Hudbay Minerals with a Buy rating and C$17 price target.

Berenberg lowered the firm’s price target on BHP Group (BHP) to 1,700 GBp from 1,900 GBp and kept a Hold rating on the shares. Additionally, the firm decreased its price target on Anglo American (NGLOY) to 1,900 GBp from 2,000 GBp and kept a Sell rating on the shares.

Last week, JPMorgan lowered the firm’s price target on Southern Copper (SCCO) to $79 from $83.50 and maintained a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted its estimates to incorporate Q1 results, the latest macro and forex estimates and updated commodities prices.

Berenberg downgraded Rio Tinto to Hold from Buy with a price target of 4,700 GBp, down from 6,200 GBp. The firm is taking a more cautious view on iron ore and reduced estimates by about 5% over 2025-27, citing a lack of clear stimulus from China as “a key driver of this reduction,” the analyst tells investors.