Raymond James notes that on Wednesday, German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported that several large banks have temporarily halted PayPal (PYPL) payments due to a service interruption. PayPal has since said that the issues are resolved, and payments are back to business as usual. For each day of disruption, the firm estimates it will likely be about 10 bp headwind to Q3 Branded TPV growth. Notably, this is based on Statista’s estimate that the German e-commerce market is $105B in 2025 and management’s comments that 80% of German e-commerce runs through PayPal, while Raymond James is also assuming 60% of that TPV is Branded. Simply put, while the firm does not expect any material impact, assuming no lingering effects, it believes it is helpful to frame the potential Branded headwind as it is one of the most important metrics for the stock. Raymond James has a Market Perform rating on the shares.
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