Quantum Leap: IBM unveils Nighthawk quantum processor

Welcome to the latest edition of “Quantum Leap” where The Fly decodes news and activity in the quantum computing space.

NIGHTHAWK: At the annual Quantum Developer Conference, IBM (IBM) unveiled progress on its path to delivering both quantum advantage by the end of 2026 and fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029. IBM is unveiling IBM Quantum Nighthawk, its most advanced quantum processor yet and designed with an architecture to complement high-performing quantum software to deliver quantum advantage next year: the point at which a quantum computer can solve a problem better than all classical-only methods. IBM Nighthawk is expected to be delivered to IBM users by the end of 2025, and will offer: 120 qubits linked together with 218 next-generation tunable couplers to their four nearest neighbors in a square lattice, an increase of over 20% more couplers compared to IBM Quantum Heron. This increased qubit connectivity will allow users to accurately execute circuits with 30% more complexity than on IBM’s previous processor while maintaining low error rates. This architecture will enable users to explore more computationally demanding problems that require up to 5,000 two-qubit gates, the fundamental entangling operations critical for quantum computation.

SKA CENTRAL CONTROLLER: Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) announced the launch of SKA Central Controller, a software platform that future-proofs network security against current and post-quantum threats. SKA-CC is a crypto-agile, low-footprint product that enables Telco and Defense Managed Service Providers to deliver quantum-safe network services. The platform generates dynamic symmetric keys for both endpoint authentication and encrypted VPN tunnels, removing reliance on long-lived pre-shared keys or PKI-based infrastructures. SKA-CC ensures that data moving over virtual private networks across wireline, mobile, cloud and AI-enabled environments is protected by strong, lightweight and scalable cryptography that is quantum-safe by design.

QUANTUM SCALING ALLIANCE: HP Enterprise (HPE) and a consortium of seven other technology organizations announced the formation of the Quantum Scaling Alliance, a global initiative dedicated to making quantum computing scalable, practical, and transformative across industries. Masoud Mohseni from HPE Labs, the applied research arm of HPE, oversees the initiative and serves as quantum system architect, coordinating efforts among eight organizations. The Alliance is co-led by John Martinis, 2025 Nobel Laureate recognized for pioneering advances in quantum computing and currently serving as co-founder and CTO at Qolab. “For quantum to succeed as a viable long-term computing paradigm, it must scale by integrating with classical supercomputing systems,” said Mohseni, a distinguished technologist leading the quantum team at HPE. “The Quantum Scaling Alliance is offering a full-stack solution—a large partnership with horizontal integration that unlocks compute potential that is otherwise unachievable through a vertical approach.” 

UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO PACT: IonQ (IONQ) announced a strategic agreement with the University of Chicago to establish the IonQ Center for Engineering and Science on campus and deliver a next-generation quantum computer and IonQ quantum network. The agreement includes a major research initiative to accelerate the development of novel quantum technology by University of Chicago researchers. Under the agreement, IonQ will deploy a next-generation quantum computer and entanglement distribution quantum network at the university. As part of the initiative, IonQ will install a next-generation quantum computer along with an entanglement-distribution quantum network on campus. IonQ will contribute to the University’s construction of a new building on campus, the IonQ Center for Engineering and Science, which will house the University of Chicago’s Pritzker School of Molecular Engineering and other university science and technology research areas. Additionally, IonQ is poised to be named a core partner of the Chicago Quantum Exchange, based at the University of Chicago, contributing to the direction of the multi-institutional research consortium that includes Argonne and Fermilab national laboratories, the University of Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue and others.

DARPA QUANTUM BENCHMARKING: IBM announced it has been selected for Stage B, the second of three stages of the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative led by DARPA, the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The program is designed to rigorously validate and verify multiple approaches towards delivering such a quantum computer by 2033. “IBM’s progression to Stage B of DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is a firm validation of IBM’s approach to delivering a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer,” said Jay Gambetta, Director of IBM Research. “IBM has publicly laid out our comprehensive plan and roadmap to scale quantum computers towards fault-tolerance. As the industry advances, we look forward to working with DARPA as they continue an unbiased review of potential viable strategies across the field.” QBI aims to support the Stage B “performers'” ongoing research and development efforts through third-party verification and validation of their strategy. As part of the initiative, IBM is also aiming to explore novel approaches to scaling control systems for quantum computers with SEEQC.

EARNINGS RECAP: IonQ reported third quarter results on Wednesday, beating analyst expectations. “I am pleased to report that we once again beat the high end of our revenue guidance, this time by 37%. We are also raising our revenue expectations for the full year to $110 million at the high end of guidance,” said Niccolo de Masi, Chairman and CEO of IonQ. “We delivered our 2025 technical milestone of #AQ 64 three months early, unlocking 36 quadrillion times more computational space than leading commercial superconducting systems. We achieved a truly historic milestone by demonstrating world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate performance, underscoring our path to 2 million qubits and 80,000 logical qubits in 2030.” Our technical achievements continue to solidify IonQ’s quantum platform as the most complete and powerful in the world, with a correspondingly larger addressable global market.”

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) also beat Q3 earnings expectations but fell just shy of revenue consensus in its report on Monday. “This past quarter, we saw strong momentum with both the demand for our on-premises quantum computers and the development of collaborations to advance our own R&D and the quantum ecosystem more broadly,” said Subodh Kulkarni, Rigetti CEO. “On the technology front, we remain on track to deliver our 100+ qubit chiplet-based quantum system with an anticipated 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025.” Alliance Global Partners raised the firm’s price target on Rigetti to $37 from $20 and reiterated a Buy rating on the shares. Management’s updated technology road map supports monetization to begin scaling in 2028, argued the analyst, who expects “a reasonable timeline” for Rigetti to be added to DARPA Stage B is by end of Q1 of 2026. On the other hand, Benchmark analyst David Williams lowered the firm’s price target on Rigetti to $40 from $50 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm remains constructive on Rigetti’s progress, particularly its continued roadmap execution, the recent volatility across emerging tech and AI sectors has tempered near-term investor enthusiasm for quantum-related shares, though the firm thinks the recent pullback is “healthy” with the stock still up 107% year-to-date and 6% quarter-to-date, the analyst noted.

Lastly, D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) also posted a Q3 beat. “Our strong third quarter results reflect the momentum we see building across every aspect of our business, with key metrics, including revenue, gross profit, bookings and cash balance, clearly indicating D-Wave’s success in accelerating global quantum computing adoption,” said Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave. “The world is watching quantum, and specifically D-Wave, as we deliver quantum computing’s value to businesses, researchers and governments now, while advancing the technology for even greater impact and scale in the future.” Roth Capital lowered the firm’s price target on D-Wave Quantum to $40 from $50 and kept a Buy rating on the shares. D-Wave reported continued process across both cloud services and hardware sales, with pipeline opportunities expanding globally for the company, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that it believes -Wave and its lead quantum annealing offering are also gaining greater traction with U.S. government opportunities. Alternatively, Rosenblatt raised the firm’s price target on D-Wave to $40 from $30 and backed a Buy rating on the shares following a transfer of coverage. The company reported a solid Q3 with strong bookings momentum in Q4, the analyst said.