Piper believes Street service revenue target for TransMedics looks achievable

Piper Sandler analyst Matt O’Brien notes that every month, the firm tracks organ transplant volumes and the number of flights taken by TransMedics (TMDX)’ medical jet fleet. Transplant volumes grew low single-digit in Q4 2025 versus Q3 2025. Liver, which the company is closely tied to, showed a strong 4.2% increase quarter-to-date. Piper keeps in mind that the Street is still expecting nearly 10% sequential growth in product sales in Q4 2025, which appears achievable to it based on machine perfusion share gains though room for upside seems limited. While the firm’s model implies that service revenues may fall just short of expectations, it is within a reasonable margin of error for potential modest upside. Thus overall, Piper believes the Street’s service revenue target is achievable, with modest downside risk and upside potential. The firm has an Overweight rating on the shares with a price target of $140.