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Philip Morris sees FY25 adjusted EPS $7.36-$7.46, consensus $7.53

Previous EPS view was $7.33-$7.46. This forecast assumes: An estimated total international industry volume decline of around 1% for cigarettes and HTUs, excluding China and the U.S.; Total cigarette and smoke-free product shipment volume growth for PMI of around 1%. We expect smoke-free product volume growth of 12% to 14%, partly offset by cigarette volume declines of around 2%. SFP volume growth continues to assume 10% to 12% growth in HTU adjusted IMS volumes, and U.S. nicotine pouch second-half shipment growth broadly in-line with offtake growth before trade inventory movements. Net revenue growth of around 6% to 8% on an organic basis; Organic operating income growth of 10% to 11.5%, including the impact of higher U.S. investments; Capital expenditures of around $1.6 billion, almost entirely due to investments supporting the smoke-free business; Further net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improvement as we continue to target a ratio of around 2x by the end of 2026; and No share repurchases in 2025.

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