PayPal downgraded, UPS upgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• HSBC upgraded UPS (UPS) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $125, up from $100. Q4 results beat expectations and while in-line 2026 guidance implies a weak Q1, it also points to strong margins by the end of 2026 when the Amazon (AMZN) glide down and tariff disruptions fade, the firm tells investors in a post-earnings note.
• BofA upgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $235, up from $185. Driven by industrial inventory replenishment, emerging growth in data center power, connectivity and aero, and defense markets as well as automotive content gains, less-crowded analog stocks such as Texas Instruments “can reenergize,” the firm added.
• BofA upgraded Microchip (MCHP) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $95, up from $78. Microchip is trading at a premium multiple, but the firm sees significant headroom for earnings upgrades since its raised calendar year 2027 sales forecast of $7B is below the company’s prior $8B-plus peak.
• Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Visa (V) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $385, up from $327. The firm believes the “pricing power” from a more fragmented e-commerce backdrop as agentic commerce ramps will result in a shift away from large merchants back to the card networks.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $262, up from $200. The firm cites its higher estimates of the company’s new products and a higher valuation multiple for the upgrade.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded PayPal (PYPL) to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $50, down from $70. PayPal should be well positioned for agentic commerce given its scale, but its advantage will erode as consumer behavior shifts, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Jefferies downgraded BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $90, down from $120. The company’s growth is shifting toward competitive markets, which raises its execution and margin risk, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Argus downgraded Roper Technologies (ROP) to Hold from Buy. The company’s outlook calls for growth, but at a mid-single-digit rate instead of its goals for double-digit rates, the firm added. Stifel and Oppenheimer also downgraded Roper Technologies to Neutral equivalent ratings.
• JPMorgan downgraded Western Alliance (WAL) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $105, up from $100. Only two interest rate cuts are likely to occur this year per the forward curve, which limits any material relief from lower rates for the bank, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• UBS downgraded Nucor (NUE) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $183, up from $168. The downgrade is based on “full” valuation and pricing, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Baird initiated coverage of Coinbase (COIN) with a Neutral rating and $240 price target. The firm says that while Coinbase has a “strong franchise and solid growth story,” the stock’s risk/reward is balanced given its recent trading volume deterioration and Clarity Act uncertainty.
• Barclays initiated coverage of Bloom Energy (BE) with an Equal Weight rating and $153 price target. The firm says Bloom is positioned to benefit from rising onsite-power demand and strong hyperscaler momentum, but says the stock’s valuation already prices in “meaningful scale-up toward.”
• Barclays initiated coverage of TPG (TPG) with an Overweight rating and $78 price target. The firm says a “robust” fundraising outlook, margin expansion opportunities, and the company’s solid investment performance position TPG for a “healthy” medium-term earnings growth outlook.
• BofA initiated coverage of Celestica (CLS) with a Buy rating and $400 price target. As a “leading provider of white-box switches,” Celestica will be a beneficiary of an AI-driven upgrade boom for high-speed data center switches as well as strong growth in custom ASIC accelerated servers, the firm tells investors.
• Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Heartflow (HTFL) with an Overweight rating and $38 price target. The firm sees upside to Street estimates from the company’s fractional flow reserve-computed tomography and plaque volumes.