Piper Sandler downgraded Oscar Health (OSCR) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $14, down from $18. The firm remains comfortable with Oscar’s 2025 guidance following a review of 2024 risk adjustment data, recent Centene (CNC) and Molina Healthcare (MOH) announcements, and statutory filings from the company and competitors in key Florida and Georgia markets. But Piper fears that solid 2025 execution is an insufficient catalyst to buoy the stock as time advances towards 2026. Risk-reward is softening, in the firm’s view. Piper expects provisions in The One Big Beautiful Bill Act/2025 Marketplace Integrity and Affordability Final Rule plus the expiration of enhanced APTCs to produce unprecedented disenrollment, risk pool degradation and rate/trend volatility in the ACA Marketplace and at Oscar next year.
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