Odds On: Want to bet on when Polymarket U.S. launches? Here’s how

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BACKGROUND: Polymarket’s upcoming U.S. launch is one of the most anticipated events in the prediction market space this year. The company recently acquired QCEX, a regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for roughly $112M. The acquisition gives Polymarket a path to operate legally in the U.S. through existing derivatives licensing. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has reportedly given what insiders describe as a “green light” for Polymarket’s return, suggesting the regulatory groundwork is in place. The company is already taking waitlist signups for American users, signaling confidence that a launch is imminent. The exact timing remains uncertain. Polymarket hasn’t announced a date, and its ability to go live depends partly on ongoing coordination with U.S. regulators. The ongoing government shutdown adds a layer of uncertainty, as regulatory processes tend to slow down when agencies like the CFTC and SEC are short-staffed or furloughed. While there’s no direct indication that the shutdown is blocking Polymarket’s approval, it does risk pushing timelines into early 2026 if administrative delays pile up.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?” with a total volume of $6.39M. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in an 89% chance of Polymarket US going live in 2025. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 89.3c, while the “No” contract stood at 11.2c.

BULL CASE: If the company does manage to launch before the end of the year, it would mark a major turning point for prediction markets. Polymarket would become the first large-scale event market platform to operate openly in the U.S., backed by real regulatory clearance and major institutional investment. The firm already counts Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) among its investors and has been valued as high as $8B. Additionally, Polymarket’s filings and advertising suggest they intend to offer sports-event outcome contracts such as moneylines, point spreads and totals rather than purely political or “yes/no” markets. A quicker U.S. launch would position the company to capitalize on more of the NFL and college football schedule where user interest is heightened.

BEAR CASE: Even with federal approval, state-level rules could restrict which markets Polymarket can offer, especially those tied to politics, sports or other sensitive topics. A prolonged shutdown or shifting regulatory posture could delay full rollout and even if the platform goes live, lack of liquidity or limited market selection could dull initial enthusiasm. Competitors already operating in niche areas could also siphon users before Polymarket scales up.

THE RULES: Polymarket states that this market will resolve to “Yes” if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-operated designated contract market by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, according to Polymarket.