Odds On: Want to bet on the spot price of gold in 2025?

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BACKGROUND: For much of the year, gold has benefited from its traditional function as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. While headline inflation has cooled from prior peaks, investors have remained sensitive to the long-term implications of elevated government debt, persistent fiscal deficits and the lagged effects of years of loose monetary policy. Gold prices often appear to be influenced less by the level of inflation itself and more by investors’ perceptions of policymakers’ effectiveness in managing inflation, with periods of reduced confidence in that framework typically coinciding with stronger demand for the metal. Debasement concerns have also played a meaningful role. Large-scale government borrowing, expanding balance sheets at major central banks, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have reinforced the appeal. Historically, periods marked by aggressive fiscal spending or doubts about fiat currency discipline have coincided with stronger gold prices, and this year has followed that pattern, particularly as investors look beyond short-term rate moves toward longer-term monetary stability. Episodes of geopolitical tension, war-related uncertainty, and renewed financial-market volatility have repeatedly pushed investors toward assets perceived as stores of value. Even when equities have rallied, gold has often held its ground, reflecting its role not as a growth asset but as portfolio insurance. Central-bank buying has reinforced this dynamic, with many countries continuing to increase gold reserves as a way to diversify away from dollar exposure and reduce reliance on the global financial system’s existing architecture. Gold currently stands at $4,361.50 per ounce.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “What price will gold close at in 2025? ($4000-5000)” with a total volume of $2.24M. There are currently four options with a probability of over 3%:

• $4200–$4300 (volume: $186,398)
• $4300–$4400 (volume: $132,085)
• $4400–$4500 (volume: $177,320)
• $4500–$4600 (volume: $153,256)

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 15% chance of gold closing at $4200–$4300. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 15.6c, while the “No” contract stood at 85.1c.

Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 31% chance of gold closing at $4300–$4400. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 32.4c, while the “No” contract stood at 70c.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 33% chance of gold closing at $4400–$4500. The “Yes” side last traded at 34.2c, and the “No” contract is sitting at 69.8c.

Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 9% chance of gold closing at $4500–$4600. The “Yes” side last traded at 10.2c, and the “No” contract is sitting at 91.3c.

THE RULES: According to Polymarket, this market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract as of the final market close price in 2025. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.