Odds On: Prediction markets favor Nvidia for largest market cap at month’s end

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BACKGROUND: As of this quarter, Nvidia’s (NVDA) market capitalization stands at about $4.55T. Market cap is calculated by multiplying the current share price of a company by the total number of shares outstanding. Nvidia became the first publicly-traded company to breach the $4T mark earlier this year and crossed $5T in some intraday valuations more recently. The company’s dramatic ascension is largely driven by its dominant position in the artificial intelligence ecosystem, especially its leadership in GPUs and data-center hardware that power large-scale AI models, combined with a forward-looking growth narrative that investors have valued aggressively.

In parallel, Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is approximately $4.03T as of this quarter. Apple’s value is rooted in its immense scale. The company has a vast installed base of devices, a services business that has grown to represent a significant portion of revenue, high margin operations, strong brand loyalty worldwide and optionality in new growth areas like augmented/virtual reality and health.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “Largest Company end of November?” with a total volume of $7.3M.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 95% chance of Nvidia being the largest company at the end of November. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 95.1c, while the “No” contract stood at 5.2c.

For Apple there is a 5% chance of being the largest company at the end of the month, according to Polymarket. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 4.9c, while the “No” contract stood at 95.3c.

NVIDIA BULL CASE: With the odds so heavily in Nvidia’s favor, it would take a dramatic turn of events for the company to fall behind Apple in terms of market capitalization. Nvidia’s surge in valuation is anchored in its role as the backbone of the artificial-intelligence infrastructure wave. As demand for AI training, inference, data-centre expansion and advanced chips accelerates worldwide, Nvidia stands in a privileged position supplying both hardware and the software stack that ties them together. That gives it a growth narrative not just from incremental product upgrades, but from a structural shift in computing and enterprise architecture. Investors are treating Nvidia more as a platform with many levers of growth, rather than a traditional semiconductor vendor.

APPLE BULL CASE: While it remains a long shot for Apple to surpass Nvidia’s market capitalization, the company is firmly in second place with Microsoft (MSFT) being the next closest. Where Nvidia must continuously prove that AI demand remains at fever-pitch, Apple simply has to maintain the gravitational pull of its platform. That gives it a fundamentally different volatility profile. One could also argue that the market has under-credited Apple’s ability to reinvent itself.

THE RULES: Polymarket states this market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30 as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.