Odds On: How to bet on government reopening

“Odds On” is The Fly’s new weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

The U.S. federal government shutdown on October 1, when Congress failed to pass appropriations or a continuing resolution to fund government operations. The political climate is tense and transactional with both sides utilizing the shutdown as a lever in a broader fight over budget priorities, executive power, and legislative control. Until a continuing resolution, or full-year appropriations bill, is passed that both houses approve and the President signs, the shutdown remains in effect. Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked over how to end the government shutdown, as the Senate on Thursday voted down competing measures for the seventh time. The Republican-backed bill, which had already passed the House, fell short in a 54–45 vote, with three Democrats again breaking ranks — the same number as in earlier votes since the shutdown began last week. With lawmakers now heading home until Tuesday, the standoff is set to drag on into next week.

THE BET: The Kalshi Events Market has the prompt of how long will the government shutdown last? The platform currently allows bettors the choice of more than 25 days, more than 30 days and more than 35 days. More than 25 days have been handicapped at a 67% chance. A 67c bet on “YES” the shutdown lasts more than 30 days pays out $1, while a 36c bet on “NO” the shutdown does not last more than 30 days would pay out $1. More than 30 days have been handicapped at a 50% chance. A 51c bet on “YES” the shutdown lasts more than 30 days pays out $1, while a 50c bet on “NO” the shutdown does not last more than 30 days would pay out $1. More than 35 days have been handicapped at a 38% chance. A 38c bet on “YES” the shutdown lasts more than 30 days pays out $1, while a 63c bet on “NO” the shutdown does not last more than 30 days would pay out $1.

Meanwhile, Polymarket’s prompt is structured as when will the government shutdown end? The platform currently allows bettors the choice of October 10-14 or October 15 or later. October 10-14 has been handicapped at a 5% chance. A 5c bet on “YES” the shutdown ends October 10-14 pays out $1, while a 96c bet on “NO” the shutdown does end October 10-14 would pay out $1. October 15 or later has been handicapped at a 95% chance. A 96c bet on “YES” the shutdown ends October 15 or later would pay out $1.00, while a 6c bet on “NO” the shutdown does not end October 15 or later $1.00.

TENSIONS INCLUDE: Disagreements over spending levels and priorities between Republicans and Democrats; Republican proposals to rescind certain previously approved spending which Democrats strongly oppose; Democrats demanding protections or extensions for health insurance subsidies and resisting cuts to social programs as part of any funding deal and broader distrust between the parties over whether negotiated language would be kept once the shutdown ends.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: The last government shutdown occurred during President Trump’s first term beginning in December 2018 and ending in January 2019, a total of 35 days. This marks the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Over the past 10 government shutdowns, the average length is 9 days.

POTENTIAL RESOLUTIONS: Shutdowns are usually resolved before they go too deep, partly because federal payroll and defense salaries become political deadlines. For example, some analysts predict that the military pay date on October 15 could act as a forcing mechanism for Congress to act.

WHAT’S AT STAKE: Economists are warning that each week of shutdown could subtract approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points from quarterly GDP growth, and a prolonged stalemate could meaningfully erode business confidence, investment and consumption. The Trump administration began furloughing federal employees, according to a social media post from budget chief Russell Vought. Vought posted, “The RIFs have begun.” The Fly notes RIFs stands for reduction in forces.