Odds On: Betting on Time Person of the Year? Here’s the latest

“Odds On” is The Fly’s new weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

BACKGROUND: The Time 2025 Person-of-the-Year honor typically means being the person or idea that had the biggest impact on the news and the world in that year. The current 2025 race includes traditional public figures, world leaders and also abstract or technological contenders. The last five winners have been Elon Musk, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, The Spirit of Ukraine, Taylor Swift and Donald Trump.

THE BET: Polymarket offers wagering on “Time 2025 Person of the Year” with a total volume of $14.4M. There are currently five options over the 5% chance threshold: Artificial Intelligence, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Pope Leo XIV and Donald Trump.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 38% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Artificial Intelligence with a total volume of $1.76M. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 38c, while the “No” contract stood at 63c.

Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 27% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang with a total volume of $969,620. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 27c, while the “No” contract stood at 74c.

According to activity on Polymarket, there is a 14% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, with a total volume of $405,973. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 14c, while the “No” contract stood at 87c.

On Polymarket, pricing suggests an 8% probability that the Time 2025 Person of the Year is Pope Leo XIV with a total volume of $1.8M. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 8c, while the “No” contract stood at 93c.

Data from Polymarket is baking in a 6% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Donald Trump with a total volume of $2.48M. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 7c, while the “No” contract stood at 95c.

Meanwhile on Kalshi, the prop is titled “TIME’s Person of the Year for 2025?” with a total volume of $5.72M. Kalshi offers the same five entities as Polymarket with an over 5% chance of winning.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 40% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Artificial Intelligence. The “Yes” side last traded at 40c, and the “No” contract is sitting at 61c.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 30% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Huang. The latest trade shows the “Yes” contract at 31c and the “No” at 70c.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 17% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Altman. The “Yes” contract was most recently at 17c, compared with the “No” at 86c.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 10% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being Pope Leo. The last trade saw the “Yes” contract at 10c, while the “No” contract settled at 91c.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 6% chance of the Time 2025 Person of the Year being President Trump. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 7c while the “No” contract stood at 95c.

THE RULES: Polymarket said: “If listed person/thing is named as TIME’s Person of the Year for 2025, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve to “Yes” if listed person is named TIME’s Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with any other person or thing which is not named in this market, so long as the term is explicitly named. This market will resolve based on Time’s cover. Other Time webpages which differ from the cover will not be considered. This market can resolve after the 2025 TIME’s Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2025 TIME’s Person of the Year is not announced by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.”