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Nicor outcome creates ‘real but manageable drag’ on Southern EPS, says Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith notes that the Illinois Commerce Commission granted rate increases for Ameren Illinois (AEE) and Southern Company (SO) subsidiary Nicor, pointing out that Ameren Illinois received 57% of the rate increase request and Nicor was authorized to receive 53% of the rate increase request. The firm sees the tougher stance on Nicor driving about a 2c per share annual headwind from 2026 and elevating regulatory risk around gas capex and line extensions, adding that the Nicor outcome “creates a real but manageable drag” on Southern’s EPS algorithm. The firm has a Hold rating and $103 price target on Southern shares.

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