Mizuho views Elevance Health commentary as mixed, says estimates reflect risk

Mizuho analyst Ann Hynes notes that Elevance Health (ELV) is down roughly 3% following comments made at a competitor conference. While the company reiterated 2025 adjusted EPS and MLR guidance, certain assumptions with that guidance are coming in either better and/or worse than expectations. Additionally, Elevance Health provided high level headwinds and tailwinds for 2026, the firm adds. The company’s commentary reinforces persistent Medicaid cost pressure, with higher-than-expected acuity and limited visibility into margin recovery in the back half of 2025. Mizuho is comfortable with its below consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of $28.15 versus consensus of $31.65. Overall, the firm views the company’s commentary as mixed given the limited upside to margin in the near-term, albeit a stable performance across its other business lines, but thinks its estimates reflect the risk. Mizuho has an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $342.