Microsoft upgraded, Instacart initiated: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded Microsoft (MSFT) to Outperform from Perform with a $600 price target. The firm believes investors’ attention on the ramp of Microsoft’s AI revenue stream will only increase as Azure’s growth remains strong, offering not only valuation support but also upside potential as this revenue stream continues scaling fast and investors embrace Microsoft as one of the long-term AI winners in software.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded JPMorgan (JPM) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $327, up from $253, following a transfer of coverage. The firm is bullish on the long-term structural benefits of scale for the large-cap banks. Keefe Bruyette also upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to Outperform from Market Perform and PNC Financial (PNC) to Market Perform from Underperform.
• Melius Research upgraded Caterpillar (CAT) to Buy from Hold with a $500 price target. The firm upgraded the shares after increasing 2027 estimates “materially” to reflect an expected datacenter driven capacity increase in engines.
• BNP Paribas Exane double upgraded J.M. Smucker (SJM) to Outperform from Underperform with a price target of $120, up from $95. The firm expects a better-than-expected performance in coffee to drive upside to estimates for Smucker.
• Oppenheimer upgraded BridgeBio (BBIO) to Outperform from Perform with a $60 price target. The firm expects the outperformance of BridgeBio shares to continue as 2025 Attruby sales beat consensus estimates.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded Monster Beverage (MNST) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $60, down from $63. The firm cites the U.S. government raising its tariff on imported aluminum from 25% to 50% for the downgrade.
• KeyBanc downgraded T-Mobile (TMUS) to Underweight from Sector Weight with a $200 price target. The stock’s underperformance will continue as T-Mobile is “fiber deficient in a converged/bundled world,” the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Citi downgraded Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $114, up from $108. The firm expects the company to lose near-term market share in Macau.
• Citi downgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $288, up from $259. The firm cites valuation for the downgrade following the stock’s recent rally.
• Citi downgraded Illumina (ILMN) to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $80, down from $85. The firm sees “significant” risk to estimates in the second half of 2025 and 2026 for Illumina.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Edgewater Research initiated coverage of Instacart (CART) with a Neutral rating. The firm wants to see more progress from Instacart on advertising before recommending the shares.
• Wolfe Research initiated coverage of MongoDB (MDB) with an Outperform rating and $280 price target. The firm sees conservative estimates and improving execution at MongoDB.
• Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of Capital One (COF) with an Overweight rating and $261 price target. The firm views the company’s acquisition of Discover as a “game-changer.”
• BofA resumed coverage of Super Micro (SMCI) with an Underperform rating and $35 price target. Margins are likely to remain under pressure in a more competitive AI server and rack market, while the availability of components may limit revenue growth, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• William Blair initiated coverage of Wingstop (WING) with an Outperform rating. The firm says the company has posted a “remarkable” 21 straight years of positive same-store sales due to its broadening consumer appeal, value-centric menu, and growing digital presence.